I don't have an opinion on VTR. I am probably different than a lot of investors -- but maybe like Vickersviscount's aunt (see prior post) who bought and held, ignoring the clutter of information tossed about. How did she do?
I bought HCP because it had a history of increasing its dividend over a long time period. That's my number one criteria before I buy any stock. Essentially that weeds out all the fly-by-night and "story" stocks. Only good companies can raise their dividend year after year after year. They are companies that are shareholder oriented and successful through the business cycles.
I try to buy when they are out of favor and then just hold. If you want to see beauty in dividend increases, go look at some of the drug stocks (e.g. PFE and JNJ)! And they aren't particulary popular now.
So, I don't look at forecasts or analysts' recommendations. VTR does not have that long history of dividend increases that HCP does. I could still end up a better investment than HCP. I don't have an opinion on that. All I know is that HCP meets my own criteria, and VTR doesn't.
When the price of HCP was dropping, I did look to see if there was a news story about the dividend being slashed. Since there was none, I knew I wasn't going to do anything. Only when dividend is in jeopardy will I consider selling.