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SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Jan 6, 2008 12:23 AM Flag

    Charlie Wilson's War

    ...great movie basically giving credit to the ending of the cold war to one congressman from Texas without the CIA. Too bad Charlie wasn't running things in the White house!
    With this in mind I'd like to review the CBNW space concerning drug development, funding and awarding of DOD contracts. CBLI had a drug for the ARS market(radiation treatment) that was relatively cheap and could be stockpiled. There was still some developmental work that needed doing but the DOD opted to award the contract to OSIR's prochymal @ $10,000/dose last week. This $225mil contract was awarded to OSIR only 5 months after the company announced they were pursuing the ARS market space. Funny thing was that the DOD dropped all their support for CBLI's 502 once OSIR agreed to a partnership with big pharma GENZ ($20Bill market cap). This partnership seemed to be instrumental in cutting a deal with the DOD and securing a contract. The decision certainly wasn't based on a cheaper more convienent drug from CBLI.
    Looked almost like the VXGE cancellation WRT to an anthrax drug that was under development, or the HHS canceling the ARS order from HEPH rather than awarding it to other contenders last year. The DOD goes ahead and places an order for ARS treatment 10 months later with a company that just got into the race! None of this makes sense until you remove all the science and focus on the politics.
    We're lucky that Siga has pull within the system; DOD with Dr. Hammer, NBSB with Dr. Rose and Dr. Hruby WRT the WHO. CBLI's downfall was not having the contacts hence no contracts. It's a done deal with Siga. "Just biding my time."

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    • best time to treat yourself...I'm a contrarian....kidding aside, everyday is a good day to treat yourself. Drambuie was my fav. on hm vanilla icecream, but I've replaced it with Balsmic reduction, ground pepper and fresh raspberries.
      Chin up you'll pull through this...we always do and just look around you........much to be thankful for. Siga is an investment...longer term than expected. I'm sure your parents had days like this. Ron is down $200,000 on his Nov. buy. I don't see him panic selling!.... mind you he has a bit more in reserve than we do, just a bit!

    • a lot of this is timing. Greed makes us hang on for the really big payola, but like some on this board, if we played the game sold on a pop and rentered on dips we would be ahead of the game. And a game it is. If you just put this away for a while one day you'll awake and it will be up there. you, I overextended myself in buying this, sold out once and rentered, bought more averaging down but too much of my investment capital is tied up now while I watch it drip every day.
      ...without news this will continue its drip and unfortunately will take much more to bring it up if those buying down here start unloading on the way up!
      long term we're okay but next 2 wks could be a casarean without local!

    • Lagavulin, I've had that but can't remember if it tastes like a peat bog... an acquired taste amoung scotch drinkers. May have some...have to check out the old pantry; after the holiday rush... could be down to Jack Daniels or Cdn rye.
      Ahhh........ a nice single malt scotch, on the rock...can't dilute it too much with a Montecristo. I'm feeling heady already. Here's to blowing smoke rings in your dreams!..............what I smell a news flash !!!!!!!!!!Oh sorry must of been that fat lady blowing off gas

    • I usually drink the generic stuff like Macallan Elegencia 12 yr single malt....was actually drinking it with eggnog one night. Years ago I remember keeping some in my barrick's box with a pkg. of fig newton's as a night cap.

      looks like we're down to a few investors. where's the old gang? Sunday night on the first full week you'd think everyone even the bashers would be posting. Siga's performance is looking more like that of the Redskins(there's a move underway to rename them by another skin type, hoping that might make them rise to the occasion. With a Baptist preacher possibly in the Whitehouse might not go over too well!
      honestly I believe the company did not see this coming! An update may be helpful, but then again who am I? Where's your sidekick Golden?

    • Politics over science...good and realistic point. If you haven't read "And The Band Played On", you should give it a look. The book is better than the movie...the story of how politics delayed funding for development of AIDS treatment in the USA for more than 10 years while politicians kept their heads in the sand and funded only political favorites.

      • 2 Replies to poboz17
      • yeah that was a great book...if I recall they were trying to isolate the viral pathogen(HIV) that caused AIDS but didn't get adequate funding. We're still working on treatments, hopefully one of which will be a 100% cure.
        Mush, agree luck is not the reason but I was comparing Siga and other small bio's such as CBLI. Both have great science behind them. Siga's lucky horse shoe is that it has a strategy. When your long in a bio good to know when you see P/S dropping like this.

    • Good point beav

      We're lucky as shareholders, since we have little control over siga marketing strategy, but luck is not the reason siga has close ties with government.

      It is a strategic plan to bring products to market in this niche. Call it a "strong customer focus". A major reason siga is a winner.

      Siga made a good move by outsourcing investor relations to preserve customer focus (a core competency). The Cameron deal was announced last march. It's time for a critical performance review of that contract.

    • great overview, Beaver! You can't help but notice how the world's military expenditure keeps pace with global oil consumption....this may give one a better perspective:
      Imagine those numbers if we had a pox outbreak?
      Depressing to say the least! Especially the species extinction! 25 more since I last checked 12 hrs ago. We definately need a change but will it happen fast enough to make a difference?

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