Why do I constantly read from SIGA posters that should things go SIGA's way that SIGA can double to $7pps? When a year ago they were posting, when the pps was in the $15's that we could go to 24+? What gives? $7 doesn't impress me. In fact, if that's all these past 9 years holding will get me, I'm outta here. Too much blood, sweat, and tears shed here already.
So, again, what is the value of our shares IF, let's say, PIP gets awarded 100 million and call it a day? I have no idea how to figure out the value, but I know that others can.
The 7 dollar value is based on 50/50 revenue split under worst case outcome. It's a conservative estimate.
The other new factor in valuation is CMX-001. The passage of time has made it a more viable competing product. It is conceivable that the drug will get approved for treating infections in terminal illness, despite its propensity to cause cancer and birth defects. It has been demonstrated that Arestyvir requires an intact immune system to be effective. So there is a valid application for other antivirals since we have a significant population of people with immune disorders. I see the pie getting split. The question is to what extent. I still believe siga will be worht $20+. But the timeframe is pretty uncertain at this point for a host of reasons.
I agree....sad, but true. No doubt that the NSP would include 2 treatments for smallpox, anyway. But to go from almost 3 billion to 450 million kinda sucks. Oh well. Once the FDA approves and the world begins to stockpile, maybe then?
"gain, what is the value of our shares IF, let's say, PIP gets awarded 100 million and call it a day? I have no idea how to figure out the value, but I know that others can. "
Wedbush just gave you a gestimate of $11+!
Depends on the earnings and the PE allocated. See the YHOO analysts' estimates chart!
IMO, with NO competition today & for the forseeable future, $1B or $20+ is a realistic nearterm target.
Just compare PFE's PPS & PE( with products & assessable future earnings) with for example CMRX's PPS & PE (no products & maybe earnings someday) & you'll see the problem in gestimating SIGA with a few uncertainties BUT with a CURE & a $4-600M contract + addl options & healthy margins,NWJ?
So, now, it's see what Wedbush/RBC guess and await revenue/earnings, be patient & maybe RP will
add to his billions & let us tag along,NWJ?