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SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • newsigalurker newsigalurker Jun 19, 2013 5:49 PM Flag

    New hit piece out on Seeking Alpha from PIP Long

    He says PIP still gets 50% from Parsons. grab some dinner as it's a very long article. You have to give him an A for effort. Heck, the last time he posted SIGA dropped huge, but not sure if there are many weak hands left to drop us much lower.

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    • Shares on sale due to options expiry. Here's the 411 on the remand: The monetary award will be immaterial. The bridge loan and merger are the binding agreements, not the LATS, so the judge can't award specific performance. The judge must award expectation damages under the bridge loan or merger agreement. If neither has a provision that controls in the event of a breach (the breach in this case is the failure to negotiate the LATS in good faith) then the judge will need to calculate a monetary award. The lost profits award must be reasonably certain but it does not need to be exact. The judge has already determined that good faith negotiations would have resulted in a 50/50 split. Therefore, the judge needs to determine the net value of the drug profits at the time of the breach, in light of the various contingencies expressed as percentages. The starting value will be $1 Billion which is the drug's potential value as agreed to by the parties and cited by the SC in its opinion. The next step is to assign percentage values to the various contingencies. Next, multiply the assigned percentages with the resulting product expressed as a percentage. The final percentage will be multiplied by $1 Billion. The final award will be 50% of this amount plus attorney's fees and costs. The contingencies with corresponding odds of success are as follows: human trials (just because the monkeys lived doesn't mean that humans will - 65%); FDA approval with PIP in control (PIP's previous missteps and and the Animal Rule create more than normal uncertainty - 50% tops); competing products cutting into sales eg. Chimerix and effective vaccines - 50%); successfully navigating the government contracting process - 30%); favorable political climate (50%); and sales to foreign governments (40%). Just to name a few. Multiplying the percentages yields:
      (.65x.50x.50x.30x.50x.40=.00975) means that PIP will take home less than 1/2 of 1% or approx. $5M.IMO.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • That article is a bunch of jibberjabber...the fact that he uses the term "4 bagger" to describe PIP's future is all you need to know...

3.05+0.0500(+1.67%)Sep 27 3:37 PMEDT