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SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • golongin2008 golongin2008 Mar 18, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    Siga Earnings--- Loss Doubles-Revenues Down.... !!

    4th QTR 2013 loss of $4.34 million or .08 a shares versus $2.62 million or .04 in the same quarter of 2012.
    Revenues for the fourth quarter ending 12/31/2013 were $934,000 versus 2.51 million for the same quarter ending Dec 31, 2012. Net loss for the year was 17.18 million versus 14.06 million in 2012. -.33 versus -..27.
    Rev for the year 2013 were 5.52 million versus 8.97 million for 2012.

    Looks really good!!!

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    • So I got four thumbs down for reporting the actual earnings from Siga's own release? Does that mean you folks don't like the earnings, or, did I get the thumbs down for simply reporting the facts that you find unpleasant? Don't shoot the messenger...I 'm not the one losing your money! Ghee wiz.......

    • Bump
      "Obviously, SIGA chose to defer recognition of the revenue until next fiscal quarter, which is the 1st quarter of the new fiscal year.

      SIGA now has reported $140.225 million ($30.5 million of which is invoiced to BARDA but as yet not received) in deferred revenue (and currently counted as cash in bank and offset by a deferred revenue account). While this new quarter, most likely delivered in May 2014, will result in another 250,000 courses of Arestvyr delivered to the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile. This additional revenue of $29.8 million revenue at $119.24 per avg unit revenue (cost per unit includes the free doses averaged) will be accounted for in Q3.

      Even if the margin costs per unit are amortized to be 35 percent of the cost per unit, that would mean that as of today, that mean SIGA has thus far earned $91 million in net income yet to be reported in future quarters.

      Assuming SIGA remains at 53 million shares outstanding, that means earnings of $1.72 per share will be reported next quarter, and about $19.37 million per quarter (or $0.365 / share per quarter) thereafter, assuming no new contracts are signed.

      Carrying this calculation forward for the following two quarters, that means in the coming fiscal year (of which we are already 1/5 through), SIGA will make $1.72 Q1 + $0.365 Q2 + $0.365 Q3 + $0.365 Q4 = $2.82 / share FY 2015 Ending 3/2015.

      PIP's most likely outcome will be to get 50 percent of all revenue streams in the future, but possibly not current or past earnings steams. Even if PIP were to get 50 percent of the deferred revenue and earnings, SIGA would retain rights to license Arestvyr (while PIP may also retain equal rights to license), SIGA will make at a minimum $1.41 / share in FY2015. The best case scenario will be for SIGA to get to keep most of its pre-earned revenue, and therefore will make $2.82 / share in FY 2015.

      So, right now, SIGA at a future PE of 2.6 or 1.2"

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to evenu2canexcel
      • Good analysis evenu2....Seriously. So for the sake of argument let's say you are 100% spot on and by the time the Barda contract runs it course, Siga has approx. $3.50 in the bank, in cash, net, after paying off all debts. Then what is the case to buy the stock today at $3.28, and hold if for a couple of years? What is their future business model, or plans, that warrants buying the stock today? How are they going to use the cash that they may accumulate in the next few years? Does anyone here really know?

    • That doesn't's all about the strategy right now....they're not talking, about anything, to anyone...they don't even speak with their wives at night. And they're certainly NOT going to make their business APPEAR profitable because that Parsons might come and repossess their Bentley's! These guys are so smart that, well, they're outsmarting themselves!!

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