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Celsius Holdings, Inc. Message Board

  • mullimatti mullimatti Aug 4, 2009 10:58 AM Flag

    Take it for what it's worth...

    Here is a quote from the Investment Nation interview that was held Tuesday, July 28, 2009 at 6 pm. The quotes are from the CEO. I have done my best to quote them.

    ~ 35 minute mark
    "It's hard to say what our share price is or should be... I would say our revenue growth - and then eventually profits - that needs to be in line with what's the expected multiple in the industry"

    ~ 39 minute mark
    Question: "What is the expected multiple in the industry?"
    "The expected multiple for your inner price value over your sales or EBITDA is a moving target and I did show a slide when I did the RedChip conference that showed some of the past transactions and the median is 4 times revenue. There have been some transactions much larger than that and there's been a few smaller than that, so I'd say that's probably a good goal, but again I'm not an expert on that"

    Here is the slide that was referenced:

    Based on these comments, if I had to make an educated guess, I would expect our dilutive financing to come at 4x sales. In my opinion, the financing price represents what the price that management values the company at, because that is the price they are willing to dilute it at.

    Here is an analysis at 4x sales:¤t=Low.jpg

    Here is an analysis at 7x sales:¤t=Medium.jpg

    Here is an analysis at 10x sales:¤t=High.jpg

    Currently, at $0.50 a share and 149 M shares, we are trading at 16x sales. If you count all of the issued shares (i.e. ~295 M shares), we are trading at 32x sales.

    We are going to have more dilution that will further increase the share count. The CEO addressed valuation questions in the quotes above. These are all important considerations when valuing the company and deciding what price to buy shares at.

    Again, I'm just trying to provide research with primary sources. Take this for what it's worth and draw your own conclusion. This is all MHO.

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    • I'm afraid I have to go with pumper on Vegas (I wouldn't say mindless, perhaps moral-less).

      As for NCEN I think you have to distinguish between pump and dump scams (where companies have no real products or revenues) and hyped (on MBs or e-mails or tout sites) stocks that have real businesses but will only pay off (and many times, even prevent large losses) investors if there is a perfect storm of growth OR you get in before the hype and get out when it hits.

      One of my favorite examples of a successful small cap is HANS. If you look at it's history, it stayed at around the same price level for about 5 years as it grew both sales and profits. Once it had reached hundreds of millions in sales and tens of millions in profits, the stock price exploded. It's come down a lot since it's high (who hasn't?), but it's still far above what it began as. It took a lot of growth though before the stock price moved at all.

      Companies like NCEN and CSUH have to deal with financing, and that's where you can get into trouble. Having a great product is what keeps you from going under, but having negative cash flow and negative working capital means you need continuous investment. And that investment is expensive because investors realize the risk of funding a small OTC company is very great.

      In NCEN's case, I don't see how huge your returns could be since the company has never had any revenues, has $500k in cash and is valued at $30 million (and that's according to Yahoo, who knows if there is convertible equity and the like out there). I can see how you can lose 100% though.

      Appreciate your honesty, but remember, just because a stock is not a scam, doesn't mean it's a good investment. In fact, if you're buying because of momentum or the chart, the actual business model and even its legitimacy, is meaningless (which is why I don't buy that way).

      Good luck.

    • Good one.

      I respect Vegas, however, he is not a mindless pumper, and taught me that maybe technical analysis can be applied to penny stocks.

      I am actually looking at another very low priced stock right now, it is NCEN.OB. Certainly I am not buying it as yet, looks like it could be a pump and dump. Exactly what I thought of CSUH until about a year and a half ago.

      This is another way that I try to be a voice of reason; one thing that you have probably noticed is folks promoting stocks, especially penny stocks, on other Boards. They usually promote them as "can't miss", which of course, does not exist in the stock market. If anyone was to buy in to NCEN, please remember there is a good chance that you will lose 100% of your investment, also a chance that you could make huge returns.

    • Yes I am living a life of misery and remorse. I missed the train and it's likely I will never see an opportunity like this again. I have stopped washing, and drink heavily as a result of my anguish. I hear voices. They keep telling me "I should've listened to Vegas". If only I was a guru!!!!

    • "Although I am very bullish on Celsius, it certainly is not a "guaranteed" long term success, especially in a business as cutthroat and competitive as the beverage biz."

      Maybe Jolt... but how many company's in our industry have had a management team such as ours? One with a billionaire backer/majority shareholder with a history in branding and creating empires and with connections like nobodys business.

      You may be right in your comment, but with the team in place, the level of honesty and integrity we've been shown and their fervent determination to build this to a billion dollar company, atleast in my mind, takes away any anxiety I would have about us not becoming a huge success! The next big one! You look at all the facts, and you can see how the stars are coming into perfect alignment. JMHO

      Toread Mr Desantis book - is to know the man

    • As usual, Hillsong strikes Gold, I agree with most of your points.

      Even old knotsuttle or whatever his name is started off O.K., pointing out legitimate risk factors. He mainly went overboard with his arrogant "just watch, I am right and you guys are idiots" type attitude. To me that is the difference between a basher and a person making relevant points. the basher is trying to instill fear, a person with real concerns puts forth his argument, then lets people decide for themselves.

      It certainly is true that people tend to believe that whatever little penny stock they own is a once in a lifetime deal, and will automatically tune out whatever conflicts with their view. Although I am very bullish on Celsius, it certainly is not a "guaranteed" long term success, especially in a business as cutthroat and competitive as the beverage biz.

    • Exactly what I was thinking, what is his motive?

    • So many assumptions! Clever little piggy statement is good but every stock is going to define it's own trading patterns.

      On and on your post while most of us are waiting for the news cycle to hit here!

      KEZ, when it goes to a buck next week will you be wasting your days with more quick wit for us?

    • Bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
      Doubling your money in 6 weeks is dangerously close to pig territory already, but holding on hoping it will go higher would put you firmly in the trough IMHO.
      Hindsight is always 20-20, but you can be sure for every seller such as Hill who got out a bit too early with a huge profit there are two buyers who paid more than 60 cents and are now posting to "ignore the financials and market cap, look at what a great product they have".

    • If there's a "post of the year" award, I nominate yours.

      Thanks for the early morning laugh (with a side of "sigh").

    • Hey Jolt,

      Liberal use of the ignore button helps a little bit. You have to ignore certain overbearing influences who feel it is there duty to police the board and cast out anyone who has an opinion that differs from there own. What I find fascinating is that every board has a similar social structure. Only the names are different. I have learned quite a bit from this board.

      1. All good investors ignore anything negative about the stocks they love.

      2. DD consists of rationalizing why the negative aspects don't matter.

      3. Fundamental analysis cannot be used on a stock unless it supports your opinion of it.

      4. Technical analysis cannot be used on a stock unless it supports your opinion of it.

      5. Mystical trading multiples based on rumor, speculation, guessing, and dreams are far more accurate than anything based on actual data.

      6. Everyone on this board is a guru with at least 50 years of experience. They can time the market perfectly and have never lost money. No matter what the situation, they are profiting.

      7. Anyone who doesn't like the stocks you do is really a professional shorty basher. They learned there trade from a mythical "basher handbook" once thought to be nothing but an urban legend.

      8. The stocks you love are once in a lifetime opportunities that will never ever be experienced by the market again. If you miss out, the rest of your life is destined for misery and remorse.

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