Brent spread has fallen $5 in last few months and mid continent cracks appear to be below year ago. Q1 earnings estimates are too high. But the big thing is 1mm bod of new pipelines are about to open over the next 12 months which could take the brent spread under $10. Which would sent CVI to about $33/share.
I see now the sum of the parts is worth $50+ curretly. So i think i was being far to pessimistic with my price target, unless of course the brent spread really craters to say $5 or less. UAN alone is worth $17/share (i think). CVRR will be worth another $33/share. I could see this falling to $45, but it may not fall to under $40 again unless refining takes a major plunge.
A brent spread under $10 would probably reduce their earnings power to around $3-$5/share. Put a PE of 8 a typical refiner valuation and you get around $32/share. Another thing that is worrisome is gasoline demand is way down for some reason versus last year.