The CVRR dividend for the first quarter would have only been around 60-80 cents had the brent spread been at the current level of around $9 and had their been a typical first quarter maintenance turnaround. Based on current spreads, a dividend of about half of what was declared might be a typical first quarter payout. That would still be a good % dividend. But investors should be realists. CVRR bought the smaller refinery for only $525 million in late 2011. At that time the Brent spread was as wide as it is now. CVRR is now trading at $25000 per BDP capacity. That values the smaller refinery purchase that has 70k BDP capacity at $1.75 billion. There must be some reason they agreed to sell it for only $525 million. I don't know what the catch is. But there must be one. Refineries were very hot already at the time of the purchase. Just know that when you buy CVRR at $34/share, you are paying triple the price that was paid just 6 quarters ago. It could be that it was just the greatest purchase in history. My guess is that big money knows that when the Brent spread goes back to $2, that small refinery doesn't make tons of profit.
management said.... on the first quarter earnings conference call last week that they expected the cvrr distribution to closer to the lower end of the 5.5 to 6.5 estimated distribution discussed during the ipo presentation. soooo. 5.5 a share would be just aces to me.....
whats nice is 120 mil shares are owned by cvi at 5.50 a share 660 mil then 50 mil shares of uan at a divvy of at least 2.50 is 125 mil. so cvi is goin ta take in 785 mil. that leaves 545 mil for a special divvy . after the 75 cent a quarter already being paid. looks good to me.
Drug.... I read the CRK211M1:IND crack spread is the one we are supposed to be watching. If it falls below 25 we are in trouble. Is this your understanding? Bloomberg used to post this spread on their site as free info but no longer does so. Where can I get this data? Thanks.
you do realize the crack spread is a starting point . cvrr buys locally not brent . it gets half of its oil at a deep discount because it comes straight to them in their pipelines . that means no trucking cost or rail cost. the divvy for this quarter will be at least if not more than last quarter. ya have to realize their product is all bought and sold there. their sister company buys the byproduct of coke for the fertilizer. they have a terminal rite at their plant . ya can t get better . compare em to vlo that company is a mess and it s valued at more. here you have a great location for collecting crude and distributing gas diesel and coke. also their sister makes fertilizer across the street with the left over and sells it rite there . no transportation costs. crack spread matters are not a big concern . cash cow Icahn bought 4 million shares of cvrr for his own personal holdings. says a little sumtin sumtin.