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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

  • brewman228 brewman228 Apr 21, 2013 9:13 PM Flag

    Will they be in the money?

    I was reviewing the 3B on the placement of the $5M to private holders recently and noticed there's 10M shares of options at .30AUD that expire on Sep. 11, 2013. Now the Reach2HD results are scheduled for Oct. so the question is, will the price be such that the options will be exercised?

    My bet is yes but the real question is by how much? So let's start a pool for the closing price on ASX for PBT on Sep 11, 2013.

    I'm picking .455

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    • brewman, this option issue is one important factor indicating that the HD study results will come before Sept. 11, If there is even a small possibility that the administration had some info about the study results at this time and they would not give it to those who have these options, there could be expensive legal problems what Prana does not need.

    • Whatever the date is is up to the trial doctor, in this case HSG to present results. I don't think Prana have much control over release of the Huntington's. If it was me, I would hold the Reach2HD results to be released with the IMAGINE top line results for obvious reasons.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Prana's most recent press release on the progress of the clinical trials, issued a few weeks ago, says that results from the HD trial are expected in October 2013. Prana has never met a milestone earlier than the date predicted by management, so I don't expect them to disclose the HD results any early than October.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to goutah3006
      • IMO Prana needs to report (and it will) the basic results when they know them and not to wait with them to be leaked somewhere. It is not very compex to calculate the basic results after all the data has been collected. For 100 patient it does not take many months, 2 months for that is enough. Sometimes it is more difficult to interprite the results when the results are not very clear. In that case only I would expect the basic report to take until October. I would hope that the results are clear immediately and we can get them in the end of Aug or beginning of September. But this will not be the full report, only the main results, is PBT2 helping or not.

    • Sept is pretty early, but my guess is, yes, they will be "in the money". My guess is about a 50% move from here prior to test results. 0.31 to 0.37.

      • 1 Reply to rt13101310
      • It will not take untill Oct to get the main results. I think that all the data has been collected by the end of June and IMO the most essential results are ready in the end of August or just before Sep. 11. But at this time they will be very careful that there will not be a need to reevaluate the results before printing them. In the best case there could be a presentation in some conference in the summer, but that most likely is too early. The paper by HD Rosas dealing with the iron content of the HD brains after PBT2 treatment is perhaps the easiest to get ready for a presentation, if it will not deal anything else than the iron content. The possible morfological changes (?) seen in the MRI scan are most likely published in the main report.

4.38-0.01(-0.23%)3:59 PMEDT