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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

  • brewman228 brewman228 Dec 10, 2013 11:26 AM Flag

    Question on the extension update

    Anyone want to hazard a guess as to why Prana split the announcement from the trial completion announcement? They obviously had the information already. I can't come up with good reasons to have split the announcement. If trying to generate more interest was the plan I don't think it worked. In fact I think people were expecting the updates together and are uncertain (yes the U word) about why they were seperated. Just a thought.

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    • The reason for carving out a group for further study and announcing it before the study is completed I can not explain BUT the fact tha the extension has NO PLACEBO group can only mean there are positive results. I am going from hold to BUY.

    • I would say that once final dosing was completed there were some processes and discussions and maybe testing with patients and their doctors before signing up for the extension. The extension trial announcement came two days later, faster than I expected. Since the extension trial start only 3 didn't continue. The other 4 who didn't continue finished dosing months before the start of extension trial.
      Maybe you are over thinking this.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I can think of several things that prompted them to 'decouple' both these trials. 1) AD trial has a 95% retention rate. They dont want to get that message confused with 83% for extension trial 2) By decoupling these two as separate trials, they may be able to provide periodic extension trial updates before AD trial results are published without (possibly) compromising the AD blinded trial analysis/results.

    • Stock on a slow southerly move is nothing but the market playing games! The long term trend is North!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I know that at first, I had been hoping that 100% of the most recent group to finish would choose to proceed into the extension trial, which was the case for the past two NRs regarding the extension trial (the exception being the earliest group, which had been finished for several months before the extension trial started, and one person who was still being evaluated by the time of the mid-November NR).

      I had been spoiled with that 100% mark (thinking, with that last NR, that that patient being screened would have gone on to the extension trial too), and maybe the market had been spoiled as well, ;-). That didn't happen this time around (for reasons that nobody knows, just as we don't know who were placebo patients and who were PBT2 patients from this last group, just that 8 out of 11 chose to go on, and 3 did not - or maybe it was 9 out of 11 from this final group, and that earlier person being screened did not go on to the extension trial after all - or could not, and that 66% of that group were PBT2 patients).

      Maybe the market was hoping for what I was, and maybe they didn't want to "bury" something that might have come in below market expectations (neither I, nor the rest of the market, is all that rational, after all, ;-)) in the news of the trial's completion, which might have dampened yesterday's reaction. Who knows, exactly?

      Personally, I'm glad they presented this news separately (and that my expectations of 100% going on to the extension trial were met separately, which made it next to impossible for Prana not to disappoint with this news, however unreasonable my expectations - and perhaps that of others waiting for the news - might have been).


    • It maybe as simple as an oversight in the trial completion announcement...or like you surmise, a more constant drip of information to maintain interest, which is building. I'm sure Prana's PR people are beginning to field many more inquiries lately.

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