Eliminate the noise designed to add confusion and the answer most likely is just what it appears. Accumulation of the discounted shares!
Money managers clearing the books b/4 end of Q (overshoot culprits) are already long gone. Sell side volume drying up rapidly.
From a cash on hand standpoint, beyond what may have already been raised via shares sold in the open market Apr/May, chance of imminent dilution in addition is non-existent in the near term. Safety study protocol established "in the doable category" *(already recommended by the VRBPAC) and would represents a substantial boost to the stock price relative to current valuation and heighten interest from potential suitors/partners.
Good morning gentlemen, and ladies that may be out there!
Fascinating, isn't it! Think the selling has reached a point of total exhaustion? Judging by evaporating volume, the big players sitting on their hands will have to make a move soon and start attacking the ask, and you know what that means.
FWIW, Dr. Cohen (a blogger with legitimate "credentials") estimates 2 years to full approval which falls solidly into the "doable category for Grey and Dynavax.
Ask yourself this; once trial protocol confirmed per the VRBPAC rec or more favorable for DVAX, does anyone really think GSK will just sit around and allow management to issue more shares to fund the final leg of the process (possibly mid fall/Nov/Dec timeframe) "that they would increase Grey's bargaining position as well as a higher number of shareholders to satisfy will a B/O offer? I think not!
The time is near NOW for GSK. They are just waiting on the final details of the trial before making their move IMO. In essence, dilution would work against GSK's (or anyone else with an interest) grand plan to walk away with the whole ball of wax!
I've been wondering where Dr. Cohen had gone to.
So, it seems clear that you view another big phase iii trial as, the only road out of this mess.
Dynavax brought the last trial-study wave (2009-2012) all the way to application / pre-commercial ramp up; and GSK's only actions were to find some unusual "stumbling blocks" to throw into Heplisav's path and hire someone to throw them (Daum).
Why didn't GSK just buy up Dynavax when Dynavax was so close to potential success in 2011 / 2012???
Instead, their biggest move was to place a call to Dr. Robert Daum.
And if GSK WASN'T going to buy Dynavax at the end of the last Piii trial wave, then why assume that a buyout is GUARANTEED this time????
It doesn't add up. I'm sorry, but it just doesn't.
What IS different from 2008 - 2009 and now is that Dynavax is in a VERY bad place facing more cost and delay; WITHOUT truly independent management (Gray was and still most likely IS GSK's boy); and the very real prospect that the FDA HASN'T genuinely been working with them in the past, and might very well rule against them in the future.
Another 2-3 years of Heplisav testing works in GSK's favor, allowing them to keep right on selling Engerix. Any time that you can do nothing and keep right on making steady money; why even think about changing a strategy like that?
It doesn't add up that GSK would be so frightened over Dynavax planning some additional Piii trial, (when all it really means is more delay and cost for Dynavax), that they would suddenly be jolted into buying the company.
It makes more sense that Dynavax is weakened and impaired and hobbled to such a point that they are extremely vulnerable to buyout; especially when your former employee (who still has loyalty to HQ) is currently controlling the brains and operation of the weakened target.
Now, THERE is a reason to strike.
Sorry, but I just don't see (yet) another big Piii trial as the only road to salvation here for shareholders.
anyone really think GSK will just sit around and allow management to issue more shares to fund the final leg of the process (possibly mid fall/Nov/Dec timeframe) "that they would increase Grey's bargaining position as well as a higher number of shareholders to satisfy will a B/O offer? I think not!
Right on top of it
Welcome back, there Koufax.
Thanks for the riddles (Law of Economy?) I had to look that one up. Curious.
Okay, so for every seller, ("Money managers clearing the books"), there has to be a buyer ( "Accumulation of the discounted shares")! It would be nice to try to get some insight into who's buying. A potential suitor?
It's not retail because, retail is still employing the principle of "running away from a collapsing building".
And retail, RARELY, buys when the news is this bleak; they are more likely found buying when the news touts better and better conditions and rosier prospects.
The company already approved a 100MM shares for future sale. What's to say that already hasn't taken place at $1-$1.10 range, and the company just hasn't come out to announce it?
Honestly, I don't care about dilution; they didn't approve the shares for nothing; and how MANY times has DVAX been diluted now????? Talk about a small molarity value!
Dilution is not really as big a deal as what most folks make of it.; I have been burned far worse by reverse splits than by dilutions in comparison.
Safety study PR's might sound lovely and all, and they might move the PPS a little but, the much bandied safety study (2-3 years, 6500-26,500 patients, ???? millions ) would be the kiss of death for Heplisav.
It would be Heplisav entering the "circle jerk - delay line game". It's exactly what GSK would want because it would be the start of more time selling Engerix for them. It pushes Heplisav's folder deeper into the pile for the FDA and they won't have to see it or deal with it for a while. Uh uh, any PR's about safety study blah, blah are just a small amount of sugar high for the share price.
Talk to me about something more real. From where you are sitting (much higher than me, I hope) what do you see as to who is sniffing DVAX's carcass. GSK has all the keys to Dynavax and Eddie Gray is GSK's hands on the steering wheel; but another dog in the fight would create more interest.