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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

  • cqrtdoc cqrtdoc Dec 5, 2013 2:30 PM Flag

    Taxes, timing, thinking and intuition

    Nothing really has changed with DVAX, as we await news from the company. Still, there are those who look at their crystal ball and suggest it is time for profit taking or even shorting. Tis that time of year. Still, what may be short is the short term thinking that afflicts many. As has been said, those who choose to live by the crystal ball are doomed to die of eating broken glass.

    As a means of instruction, I offer ACAD. The p/s bumped around $1-2 range for five years. And, when the FDA provided the blessing, their p/s went from 1.50 to 13 in the first quarter of 2013. Naturally, some wise holder of a crystal ball announced it was time to take profits and/or short the stock. This resulted in the p/s dropping to just above 11. But, it was short lived, just like the thinking. Today the p/s is in the 24 range. And, interestingly, while one drug now has FDA approval, ACAD has a smaller pipeline than DVAX. In fact, beyond ACAD, you can look at Celgene and Jazz Pharma and see what can happen over a longer term with real strategic thinking. Such things are possible with DVAX. IMHO.

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