I got the feeling this thing is ready to "explode" up to $4.00-4.25. It seems like there's just no holding back this industry, and yet, the Street seems mainly to be paying attention to the likes of ETM, while ignoring other large players (CMLS is one of the top 3 in the country, I believe, by number of stations).
Unless some of the cost cutting moves they've done (as those who have are aggrieved have alleged here) have damaged them in some way, its hard to see how Q4 won't look "good enough" (adjusting for loss of year ago political ads), and, more importantly, guidance for Q1 ad revenues is going to make this thing, with all wealth of operating and FINANCIAL leverage (a wonderful double-edged sword, when you have it "on your side"), POWER HIGHER.
I'm very strongly bullish here!! It's just worth more than the current price. S/B at $3.00-3.25 right now, minimum, it seems to me. But that's just me.
Well, $10 is definitely optimistic, even in my book. Have you "modeled" the earnings in any way? What kind of number are you expecting this year, that justifies your $10 target? What kind of % increase in an revenues are you modeling, industry-wide, or for CMLS specifically, to justify $10?
This IS a highly leveraged company, and management "only" offered to pay $11.50 or so, in the failed buyout of a couple years ago. I have a hard time, therefore, seeing it "spike" all the way back to (nearly) the buy out price.....unless you're expecting, say, 15-20%+ in ad revenue growth this year.
My own sense is, if they make 80 cents a share or so, after tax, this year, it's probably worth maybe 6-8x earnings, or anywhere from $5-7. If they come in more at 60-70 cents(definitely the worst I would expect), it's a $4-5 stock. If they come in at $1 (the "outsized" high end), then MAYbe we get to $8-10.
I suppose the thing that can help CMLS is that it is pretty damn thinly traded, and any kind of momentum can cause the "spike upwards" to be rather "undue" in its nature. (The mo-mo guys don't often pay attention to the fundamentals, and do appropriate, and systematic, "comparison shopping" between other companies in the same industry; they're just interested in the momentum. When this thing is "flying" to the upside, that will very likely work to our benefit....versus something like a Sirius/XM, which has a shitload of shares outstanding, and is like turning around a super-tanker in terms of its ability to "catch the wave of momentum")