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Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 20, 2010 8:57 PM Flag

    Quiet board.

    You would think there would be some postings, with the proposal to make the country's second largest pubicly traded pure play radio company.

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    • longtime: IYO, do you expect this to happen?

      • 1 Reply to ebeads2003
      • That's very hard to say. Certainly inclined to lighten up further on CMLS, on any moves up to $4.50-5.00. There is always the fear that a deal will go through, and they will overpay. Right now, by my calculations, both Citadel, at its current price, and CMLS, at its current price, values both companies at about 9x the run rate of the 9/30/10 quarter's EBITDA. (That's EV/Ebitda.) I guess you could say that means CMLS gets the "synergies" for "free," but there is always execution risk, as well as the expectation that they would have to pay more than $31 for the Citadel equity.

        Generally, I sell entitities that are trying to acquire other entities. In any case, that is why my position in ETM, EMMS, and ROIAK are all larger than my position in CMLS...although my position in CMLS is still rather sizable, as a percent of my portfolio. Personally, I would lean toward preferring they stay independent. On the other hand, a huge entity like CMLS/Citadel is likely to eventually be rewarded with a higher multiple, if the Dickeys can work their magic on the combined operation.

 
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