% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Alliance Semiconductor Corporation Message Board

  • scarman2 scarman2 Jul 27, 2000 4:35 PM Flag

    #9904 called it, so R days of R lives..

    This is McDonald Scarman and these are the days
    of our lives (laaa-laaaa).

    (sing it with me
    with hands like that of a orchesrta coordinator)
    la-la, la la la la,,,,,la la la la la la,,,la-la la-la
    err however the hell it goes -enough of this

    With we have here is a lack of direction.
    The whole freakin market is like a duck in the pond
    with no particular place to go. What we all need is
    some catalyst to spark a rally. So I nominate Mr C (no
    not the guy in Happy Days) I'm talking about Al
    Chemist to wave the bullish Wall Street flag to motivate
    those fat-butt investors and get this market


    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I thought it was a good buy when I bought it at
      23. Ever since then, it's been falling down.Thanks to
      SSB Joseph's great downgrade of the SC industry.
      Hopefully the down trend is over. You know as well as I do
      that these Institutions help eachother out. Most
      analysts are expecting the SC industry to be solid well
      into 2001. Hang on.

    • though its investment portifolio went down and risk went up. I suspects the Reddys are cooking up something...

    • All the good guys leave early to hit
      beach. This leaves the bad guys,
      i.e. manipulators,
      free rein to continue
      this debacle.
      But, your
      observation is correct, no
      matter how slight the

    • Al:

      Might be wisfful thinking on my part
      but I am smelling a bump up. Check out after hours

    • I got it wrong yesterday p.m., suggesting we'd
      perhaps get a minor pop up today (though I wasn't
      confident the overall slide was quite over yet). Here is
      someone who got it right on, back on

      Definitely worth a read----looking back then at the 200 day
      moving average of AMAT, his "bellweather" semi stock, to
      suggest a base. We would appear to be about 1-2 trading
      days away from that point.

      A rash of margin
      calls that will hit in the next day or real
      silver lining right now (which is when one should the
      stock of good companies). Some of my favorite chips,
      e.g., CREE, have lost 1/3 of their value in just the
      last 10 trading days (i.e., down about 45 points). The
      moose's butt presently feels like it backed into a wasp


      • 1 Reply to bulwinkle99
      • Q: How about one you still like? A: Alliance
        Semiconductor. They make memory products, SRAM and DRAM, used in
        cell phones, PC servers and Internet infrastructure in
        both computers and communications. They sell to 3Com
        and Lucent and those kinds of folks. A lot of their
        competitors, like Cypress, are capacity-constrained right now.
        That is providing those who aren't with a lot of
        upside potential. Q: Isn't everybody outsourcing? A:
        Alliance is in a unique position. They have a meaningful
        ownership in a fabricating plant in Taiwan called UMC,
        which gave them the right to book capacity in advance.
        That's the reason they made the investment; they
        anticipated the potential shortage. Its earnings are in the
        process of exploding as average selling prices rise and
        gross margins expand. What else is interesting about
        the stock is that it has got more than its current
        stock price in the value of its portfolio of publicly
        traded shares. Q: It has a venture-capital side to it?
        A: It has 850,000 shares of Vitesse, a $59 stock. It
        has 283 million shares of the UMC fab, whose ADRs
        trade at $3.50 a share. It has 2.1 million shares of
        Chartered Semiconductor, whose ADR trades at 67. It has
        490,000 shares of Broadcom at $174. The total value of
        the investments is around $1.25 billion. With 43
        million shares outstanding that's about $29 in value in
        the investments alone. Yet Alliance is trading at 19
        1/2 a share. That's fine and well, but in and of
        itself it would not attract us to the story. We care
        about surprises. They have little analyst coverage,
        their current backlog is $74 million, which is about
        two quarters worth and double the last quarter's.
        They are going to see sequential revenue growth of
        20%. The consensus estimate for the calendar year is
        44 cents a share and we think that's laughably
        conservative. My guess is they come in north of 60 cents a
        share. If you get any kind of reasonable multiple, and
        we're not talking about a bull-market-crazy
        semiconductor-multiple but, say, 25 times something that is growing,
        that 60 cents a share gets you $15 on top of the asset
        value of $29, and you get an incredibly conservative
        operating business valuation of $44 a share. Q: What's the
        market cap on this? A: About $800 million. This is
        probably as down market as we will go on market cap. But
        the value of the investment portfolio alone is $1.25
        billion, and combined with a 25 multiple on operating
        earnings you are up to $2 billion.

0.840.00(0.00%)Oct 20 10:35 AMEDT