-As long as you know that MOST high techs are speculations, or in many cases, just gambles, and know something about human nature, do your own thing.
As for SPC, you're right. -Could be rewarding, especially combined with Travelers.
-I'll put it and some others in the insurance group on my watch list.
Thanks and good luck.
Good thoughts again thanks.
And, get ready, I agree with you on AMAT. I do not think I will own AMAT a year from now. I am looking for a ride on 'hope and hype', which is quite strong right now. I have bought and sold these type of stocks for several years and done ok. In fact when the fundamentials and valuation turn better, i.e. PE is reasonable, that will be a time to sell AMAT!
I look at VL as well, and don't do everthing they say, but find them to be another tool. That's how I found BTY and TMX. VL likes them, and they make sense to me for other reasosn as well.
And while we are at it, how about SPC, St. Paul Ins. Looks to be a 'good value' and many of the 'experts' on the Rukeyser show are talking about it. I am kicking the tires.
thanks, good to talk to you as well,
I am conservative, in that I believe in buying cheap stocks with good yields, and stocks that have been much higher in the past, and (maybe) will return to their previous highs because of new management, or even Chap. 11 bankruptcy, etc.
-But then I leverage this with about 1/2 of allowable margin.
As to AMAT, I consider this to be a very speculative stock, in that it is very high in price in relation to fundamentals.
Benjamin Graham in all of his Security Analysis books, and the Intelligent Investor said over and over that the biggest mistake that most investors make "is to pay too much for a stock". I try not to make that mistake.
-Since AMAT has almost no earnings-VL says that they earned about 5 cents a share last year- that the PE is about 480/1. The definition of speculation, is the ability to look into the future to discover future earnings and future performance. A good speculator (which I am not)will have to look a long distance in the future with AMAT to discover these earnings of the future.
-With AMAT, that's exactly what you are doing, because right not, there are almost no earnings.
-And I am an investor- not a speculator.-Don't get me wrong, speculator is not a derogative term, it's just that I try not to speculate, even though a certain amount is necessary.
I find that I am not able to be a true speculator- don't know enough.
On the other hand, I find that if I invest in foreign utilities like BTY, TMX, and KEP that are much cheaper than domestic utilities, and diversify into other cheap stocks, and then leverage them (with cheap credit of about 4% margin costs) that it has been a winning strategy over the last year or so.
Two examples- BTY-34.61, PE(according to VL) about 6/1, yield 3%, with earning projection 5 years out of 7 dollars a share, and financial strength of B++, is relatively conservative compared to most stocks on the NYSE, and probably safer.
TMX has a little lower Financial quality of B+, and a 9/1 PE, and a 4% yield. It's also had a 17% earning's growth rate over the last 5 years, and a good growth in dividend during that time.
If VL is correct that it will have a 7% growth rate over the next 5 years, and also increase it's dividend about the same amount, then an investor should have a very good total return over this period.-Probably an 11% or more per year, and then add leverage to the picture, and the total return should be 15-16%.
In other words, I'm conservate in the price that I pay for a stock, I diversify into over 25 stocks, and leverage these positions up to 1/2 of allowable margin.
-So far, it's working.
Can I guarantee that it will continue to work?
-But each to his own.
-Good talking to you.
Rain, you don't have to understand high tech to invest in it. For exapmle, AMAT, makes machinery to build chips. I have no clue how they do it, and chip making is magic to me. What I am convinced of is capex will increase across the board, and the chip companies must buy new equipment. So while yes AMAT is rich, I am hoping it gets richer.
And, you say you are conserative. Ok, agree. But margin is not for the weak of stomach, un-knowledgeable. You know what you are doing.
Question, while I do not see BTY as conserative, I also am not sure how safe TMX is. Do you see any big differences in these two companies. Roughly same valuation, simialr charts and tracking. I get the sense that BTY is interested in doing good for share holders. What about TMX.
-Agree with some of your picks and disagree with others; but each to his own.
You obviously like and probably know alot more about high-tech than I.
-And you're also less conservative than I am, even though I'm on leverage.- Owe about 450K.
-But I do agree that THC deserves a look. It's a very cheap stock, and if they do something about that hospital in California,and also settle their lawsuits, I believe they will do well. -I've been watching it for a while.
I use a three year time frame for most of my picks (especially my turnarounds).
-Look again at FF-Best manager in the business.
-And as for BTY- Still a very strong buy.
Good luck- Rain.
Nice picks, I can see why you are up nicely. I especially like your tobacco (I don't smoke) picks and energy. I would be careful on WM right now, as the mortage rate thing may have played itself out.
For me I always like tech. Play chips. Right now with AMAT and TSM. I think they have more gas in the tank. And Telco, wiht LU CSCO BTY L and CSCMA.
Drugs are underaappreciated so I own PFE nd JNJ.
And I try to think in a world / commodity / energy mode for lack of a better name. I own KEP DD XOM EWJ (and BTY TSM).
I just sold a buch of stuff, PRU OXY FBF AWE.
I am thinking on GBU.to NOK TMX THC. Speak of, THC take a look. Very bad but very cheap, interesting.
British Telecom names Broadwing in suit
Broadband unit's sale to be finalized shortly
Courier Staff Reporter
The sale of Cincinnati Bell's broadband network could be finalized within the next few weeks, company officials said.
The sale is expected to be finalized despite a lawsuit filed against Broadwing Communications Inc., Bell's former sister company, relating to the construction of the company's fiber optic network.
British Telecom, a U.K.-based company, filed suit in the U.S. District Court in Delaware June 2 against Broadwing for patent infringement with regard to the construction of its 18,500-mile fiber optic cable network. BT asks for unspecified damages for patent infringement against several other telecom companies for construction of their networks, including SBC Communications and Verizon Communications.
The controversy centers around a process used for installing fiber optic cable that BT claims it patented in the United States in 1994. It also claims the companies violated an earlier patent involving fiber optic cable.
The process, called "blowing" cable, uses high-pressure air to carry the fiber optic cable through ductwork during installations. The air is used to surround the cable and reduce the friction around the cable as it is pushed through a duct.
BT claims to have been using the process in Europe for nearly a decade before it was introduced in the United States in the early 1990s.
Cincinnati Bell spokesman Tom Osha couldn't comment on the specifics of the lawsuit, but predicted it would have no effect on the network's proposed sale to C III Communications for $129 million. C III is a venture between St. Louis-based Cequel III, a investment and management company, and Corvisa, a Maryland-based telecommunications equipment provider. Osha said the deal definitely could be finalized by August.
Cequel III spokesman Pete Abel would not comment on the lawsuit and referred all questions to Cincinnati Bell.