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Cirrus Logic Inc. Message Board

  • parisak Mar 22, 2013 6:56 PM Flag

    Questions for all the longes and believers

    I would like to know why some of you were thinking today was the beginning of an uptrend. Please don't respond with anger, i like to invest here but looking at the last three weeks, I see no sign of recovery. Today's close is exactly like last Friday and the Friday before. This stock hasn't had a close above 23.7 in the last three weeks, couldn't hold any gain also. Today was nice but both Aapl and market were up, so that doesn't tell anything either. I check the board from time to time, last couple of Fridays, the big cheerleader "tavisman" was so sure this is the start of the uptrend and on Monday before i push the buy button, the pps was lower again.

    I know it is not possible to catch the bottom, but with crus price action, new investors like me need some technical assurance which I haven't seen here at all, i might be wrong though

    Any thoughts would be appreciated

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    • "position" as in "point of view" "stand taken"...not stock position!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Glad you clarified your position...nothing against you...your post just "sounded" like you want others to assure you about CRUS so that you can buy it...I see it is not the case...and I wish you well!

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I guess I was right!

    • My two cents is that CRUS will start a run this Wed or Thursday towards $28 resistance over the next few weeks --- until earnings conference call gives us more info. The reasons for the run up will be resolution of a major volatility squeeze combined with some minor upside catalysts. Those catalysts, other than the volatility squeeze which could be resolved upwards or downwards, are 1. Apple chart technicals that are now neutral on balance, but inching their way towards positive 2. HTC One will be released next week with CRUS inside (I think) and the marketplace will declare it a worthy competitor to Galaxy S4 and 3. An emerging market consensus that Apple and its ecosystem will be a second half of the year story with attractive product offerings for both high and lower priced smart phones, and that now is a good time to start building a position.

      JMHO, and I will probably be wrong.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Crus bottomed on March 6th.

      Apple bottomed on March 4th.

      Crus is up 6.4 since its low of 22.04

      Apple is up 10.2 since its low of 419

      Simple math...

      Apple is currently outperforming Crus and the complex as it should. Crus will perform to the upside just like it did on the downside but with apple trading at such a huge discount and being the grade A company it is... It only makes sense for the herd to move back into apple first.

      The fundamentals, the technicals, the shift in sentiment, and the volume all suggest to me that it did indeed bottom on March 6 and we are in the midst of a long term uptrend once again.

      If you are looking for technical assurance and haven't seen it then nothing anyone here says will change that... What exactly would technical assurance be for you?

      • 3 Replies to tavisman01
      • parisak Mar 23, 2013 4:07 PM Flag

        Tavisman, they bottomed for now, I agree but crus is not moving with Aapl any more. If we see a correction in market ( which seems that never happen), crus might go down with that. Since march 06, this stock is playing at this range, 22.7-23.6. Confirmation for me comes when I see an up day with lots of volume and close over 24, that day I will be a buyer, till then, this stock is risky because it can move any side. I rathe miss couple of dollats from the bottom but don't get trapped in a big downtrend. That is me and I might regret it one day or not.

      • I did call a bottom. I also said i wont be completely back in until its over 24.41. I moved out of the majority of my position when it broke 24.

        I am short Jan puts and picked up a few shares but still keeping the powder dry...

      • With all that said there is, in my opinion, some reporting risk. First time in a long time that i am worried about forward guidance.

    • New Investors are lucky, they can buy at this price if they do their Due diligence...maybe you can enlighten those of us believers why CRUS should be bought or NOT bought based on your sound reasoning.

      I do not think anyone needs to convince or assure or justify anything anyone else to BUY or SELL!

      All we can do in this board is discuss...and help each other in making a decision...not make the decision.

      Personally, I say CRUS is beginning to act better, so I am HOLDING and averaging down when I can...not as fortunate as "new" investors obviously!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to extremeprof
      • extrememprof, I have owned CRUS for quite some time. I look at this as another momentary blip, just like when they had the yield issues and the stock got knocked down to somewhere around 13 from a high of 26. I am not worried about earnings because a significant decrease in revenue is priced into the stock. I don't see this happening as their y/y should be great with the xtra content. In addition, I am inclined to think the market has priced in some unbelievable worse case scenario and their guidance will more than exceed expectations. I own my first shares around 8 and have a core position. That I always hold. I had sold some in the high 30s and have been holding the whole way down. once we hit 27$, I decided I wanted to average down with a bit of leveratge, so I bought Jan 15 with a 23 strike. If you are averaging down, you may want to consider bottom fishing by buying call options. I don't buy anything that expires soon, i prefer to buy them way out there to give it time to work.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • parisak Mar 23, 2013 4:15 PM Flag

        You need to read my post again, I asked angry people like you not to respond. I didn't ask anybody to give me assurance, I just asked those that posts this is the bottom come with a reason for this call. this is called an open discussion in a message board. I got some helpful responds but at the end, i will make the decesion to buy or not. Good luck in your holding though.

    • Simple: CRUS has become a proxy for AAPL. AAPL broke above its 50 DMA today and held. Technically it should go higher from here, potentially to the $520 area. So CRUS is going to be bought up to around $26 area and test it.

    • Maybe it was the HTC ONE smartphone news today ---- TBD
      Maybe it was the analyst that believe that Apple will launch the iPhone 5s and a lower priced iPhone in June/July...TBD

      If your a chart reader ---look at the following:
      stockcharts web site /public/1615902/chartbook/293557141

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