Lets be real, the whole sector is priced like no one will ever ship anything again and they're all going Bankrupt. The shorts are killing the sector beyond what they did to the US homebuilders. We are beyond reason at this point. If prices go much lower then NM can buy back all the shares and go private. With say 110 million shares outstanding at $1.00 the 25 million buyback will buy back 25% of the outstanding shares.If they find some investors with 85 million to invest they can go private very cheap. Hey If I win the lottery this week I can buy half the company.....
two reasons im neutral to even (yes a stretch) slightly positive on NM is because they elaborated fully on the insurance terms and the charter duration, alongside the low $1's i forsaw coming.
they pay out a 9 cent dividend in a month, returning 7% back to you with no strings..
dont expect NM above $3 for the next 6 months. the best thing that can happen for you guys is stability at $1.20 to $2 for the next 6 months then a breakout if things begin to clear up.
i'll even go so bold as to say a dip to around $1.10 might even entice me to jump in here. Heck if i get 9 cents back next month and another 6 cents 3 months later, it will pay for itself.
I agree that NM is positioned better than DRYS.
The issue is whether DRYS will go bankrupt in the next couple of days. I would take that bet. They will last at least through the end of the year.
NM isnt going anywhere, DRYS is. i would applaud angelike for making the insurance terms on charter available in that presentation, because that silenced my concerns on insurance.
full charter revenue is insured and pays 1 month after any default by EU government insurer.
so theres no issue here. DRYS neglected to prepare for the obvious, while NM did.
I will take that bet. A more absurd post I have yet to see. Maybe you are just saying that the price is acting as if they will go bankrupt in the next couple of days? They just reported earnings of 3.52 per share.
Of all the drybulkers, are they one of the most risky, perhaps. But bankrupt in next few days?
i never said i think NM will go bankrupt, not with their insured charters, im talking about DRYS.
fear not NM will find a lot of support at these prices simply because they do have insured charters and a div of 9 cents alone next month.
lets put it this way, we crossed a line and any lower would be only desperate individuals selling.
NM was overvalued at $4 given the prospects, as i stated, but at $1.30, it wont go much lower sustainably.