Could be. Given AF's sizable stake and the poison pill in place, I would imagine that a takeover could only happen under two circumstances:
1) AF makes an offer and kicks off an auction
2) A third party does a friendly deal that leaves AF substantially in control.
Hostile bid looks like a non-starter to me, although it could get the ball rolling.
I agree. Fredriksen has taken a run at these guys before, and he has about as unlimted a checkbook that you can have in the shipping biz. I don't think it is likely, but it is certainly a possibility. Actually more likely than a takeover is some sort of productive tie up with a Fredriksen entity. One of the few sectors that JF doesn't have a foothold is...product tankers. And after all the contemplated spin-offs, the rump of NM would fit nicely with Golden Ocean. I think the takeover idea is more a world of possibility rather than one fraught with danger.
Personally, I like the company at these prices on its own merits. I think its foolishly cheap and management has done a really good job. I merely raise the possibility of a take-out because it seems obvious to me. With NMM and NNA capable of sourcing their own capital, a spin-off of NSALI a likelihood, and NM itself clearly in debt paydown mode, it would not be that hard for the company to be taken out. Personally, I hope it does not happen since I think it would be done at a substantial discount to the real value of this company.
Have you ever heard the term throwing good money after bad? Betting on a takeover is good way to lose your money. If the street likes a stock it goes up and if it doesn't like a stock it goes down. Seems pretty simple to me. No one wants this stock so they are more sellers than buyers. Doesn't matter how valuable this company is if no wants to own the stock it goes down. The question is how low can this dog go?
If this continues, NM eventually beomes a takeover target, whether by Ms. Frangou or a third party. If you have NNA, NMM and NSALI all as public entities with self sustaining businesses and access to capital as needed, NM could very well be picked off.
I know we're not rocket scientists, though trub might be, but why are
we the only ppl that see the value of this stock. I'll never understand how this can be constantly shunned by the street. Angi is doing a bang up job and this just doesn't seem to go anywhere. I'm too stubborn to sell so I bought another few k this morning.
$0.14 for this quarter and the consensus was $0.13 (ranging from $0.11 to $0.14) according to TD Ameritrade.
NM definitely beats the street but we'll see how the overall market will drive the stocks in general.