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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Message Board

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  • jwrye jwrye Dec 29, 2011 12:28 PM Flag

    GLNG was my top pick for shipping

    1. Why did you make this pick, what was your fundamental reason?
    2. What are you picking for 2012?
    3. I am holding NM for the time being. What do you forecast for this stock?

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    • 1. Shipping massive quantities of very cheap LNG that is roughly 1/30th the cost for the same unit of energy as in crude oil. Notice demand for crude is way down and never recovered. Nat gas on the other hand is extremely cheap but a poor investment itself--including storage concerns. So, stick with transportation of it like APL and GLNG.
      2. Recommend avoiding all dry bulk shipping in 2012 b/c there is no recovery. China and India going down with India hitting hardest.
      3. NM is dead money. I'd consider buying it above $8 if/when there is some reality in ANY recovery. $15 trillion in debt and the US continues falling apart. Dry bulk will continue on the skids and get worse before it gets better. I think hopers and prayers alike should listen closely to those that have called the collapse properly. In the last three years of talking recovery, nothing has recovered. It's all gotten worse. Investors need to temper their dreams. Navios isn't going anywhere in 2012 and should be sold-into amidst rallies upto $8. Conversely, it's not worth shorting at this level. Too many other stocks to short that have far greater downside potential.

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