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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • keebon keebon Jan 8, 2013 10:37 PM Flag

    Wells' opinion on dry bulk (Jan 8th)

    Dry Bulk: Fredriksen Group Move Drives Stocks Higher. Last week
    Lloyd's List reported that Fredriksen Group may be behind a recent order for 6
    Capesize newbuilds (an order that could expand to 14 vessels) at a Chinese
    shipyard (Shanghai Waigqaoqiao), with Frontline 2012 a likely home for these
    assets. Tradewinds also reports that the Fredriksen group has purchased two
    resale Kamsarmax vessels from another Chinese shipyard (Xiamen). Those deals,
    along with optimism around rebounding Chinese growth, easing Chinese
    monetary policy, and a potential steel/iron ore restocking helped drive dry bulk
    names up 28% on average last week, with optimism starting to flow around the
    group. While the group certainly remains volatile, we do not believe we are seeing
    the start of a sustainable recovery, rather a short-term trade. We continue to see
    significant oversupply issues, and note the Fredriksen orders, while a bullish
    signal, capitalize on cheap assets with a 25-year life ($46MM for Capesizes, a 9-
    year low) with 2015 delivery dates, in our view. We view these orders as a
    strategic long-term investment that starts in 2 years, not a signal that today's
    equities are poised to substantially improve

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    • For the long term NM investor, this article portends a light at the end of the tunnel. When investors sense an upward move of the baltic index is in the offing, I expect NM will jump up at least a point or two in a short period of time. Then you'll see a slow and steady climb back to where it belongs. I'll hold my shares and add more on the dips.. Stay long....

      Sentiment: Hold

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