This is one reason why newspaper stocks, overall, continue to be underpriced (relative to their long term value)...
Suffice it to say, I STRONGLY disagree with Wachovia analyst John Janedis's conclusions. (His notion that Gannett is going to suffer a 14% additional decline in ad revenues in 2010, on top of the 30% decline in 2009 is PATENTLY ABSURD. I say ad revenues are going to go UP 14% (or more) in 2010, for Gannett!)
Actually, in the past 12 months the only stock out of MNI, LEE, NYT,and GCI to beat the S&P index was MNI, and just barely. Go ahead and give yourself another pat on the back. But to allege an emotion like fear to someone you have never met seems odd.
His prediction was based primarily on fear. Mine was based on logic. Therefore, he was a lemming. My logic was more messed up than his fear was though, so I can give him "credit" for that. On the other hand, I made a killing on newspaper stocks, because I was right about the important thing: The Street was pricing in IMPENDING bankruptcies for LEE, MNI, and GCI, and I was convinced that was wrongheaded. I got paid off for my bet. I wasn't a lemming. He was. It wasn't just getting ad revenues wrong. I knew that declining newsprint prices were going to help, and the massive cost cutting newspaper cos. were engaging in. He was more interested in simply figuring "doomsday" would continue. Therefore, I'm more impressed by my analysis than his, even though I was "more off" on the ad revenue change.
Frankly, I don't think the guy who predicted down 14% would have been capable of predicting it going up, even if it was staring him in the face.
But yes, I was wrong on the rebound...but part of that is that my macro-economic prediction was wrong. I though employment would be coming back by earlier this year....and I thought we were going to see mid to high single digit GDP growth for more of this year.
Nice dig on the website, working on about 20 including shopping sites/travel sites like Chicagocheap.com, Irelandcheap.com, Australiacheap.com, and I-95south.com,I-75south.com, I-5south.com, and I-95.mobi.
Pet project of mine but rolling out BIG next January.
The company I work for is based in London England and it is known as the Yell Group. Yellowbook is our USA name. we have directories in nearly 1,000 cities.counties. Our website is growing quickly and we are taking dollars from newspapers in every market we sell in.
Yodle and Yelp are comapnies I'd watch and want to to invest inwhen the time comes.
...which is why I wish you'd give us other stocks to buy when advertising dollars come back. There's gotta be some co's that you deal with besides Google. If all this money is systemically gone from the newspapers, then where is it gonna pop for the rebound? And I-95.com is not a public company yet.
Why should I believe you instead of the Wachovia analyst? He makes these predictions for a living. A wide miss would be if ad revenues were down only 2 or 3%, never mind the up 14% that you predict. The analyst talks to people who advertise in newspapers, and ad agencies that buy space. The analyst sees the trends in all ad categories; retail, national, real estate, help wanted, classified. What research could you share with us to support your prediction of plus 14% in 2010?
>>Why should I believe you instead of the Wachovia analyst?
Maybe because I've multiplied my portfolio 7x over in the last 8 months, and the Wachovia analyst has almost certainly NOT!
Because I like to think for myself...and I don't put my stock in self-styled "experts." This analyst doesn't know beans. The projections for ad revenues have less to do with "talking to clients," and more to do with having a fundamental understanding that MOST of the ad revenue decline for MNI (certainly a majority anyway) was a CYCLICAL decline....and therefore, when the cycle turns up, ad revenue turns up. That's a no-brainer, and anyone predicting an incremental 14% decline is a lemming who can't think for himself, with no credibility whatsoever in my book.
Longtime and Deadcat,
Go at it!
Protect and defend your positions. It is possible that ad revenues can go down another 14%, though it does seem a liitle hard to believe it could happen. I don't know where the losses could come from other than employment and online retail. Private party classified will all move to Craigslist, but it makes up less than 10% of total spend right now. The renewal rate for online display ads will be low, so maybe that is worth 2-3 points also.
Seems like this stock is trying to find a bottom here. Looks like we'll be at $8 per share by this time next year. Whooopeee.