Buy back now. This is a steamroller. I do not own this stock,but love to listen to the know it alls like longtime think he knows it all. Longtime..buy back now before your short position@$4.42 costs you$$$$$$
What I don't get is why investors can't see black ink pouring over every newspaper stock and why these companies are not valued based on forward P/Es and cash and EBITA. Still wondering, too, why LEE hasn't moved and why I didn't instead put the 50 grand on MNI because it'd be about 75 grand just now had I done that! I guess patience is the word. The Christmas advertising in most newspapers was an avalanche of cash, is my guess.
Bingo on Craigslist. Everyone thinks that it's going to supplant classifieds because it's free. I have a very easy way to disabuse you of that notion- it's revolutionary. You've probably never heard of it. Here it is... ta-dum! Actually try to find a Job/Car/House on Craiglist. It is totally impossible. In short, it sucks. Horribly. I tried to fina a Job and Car on CL in the last year and probably wasted 40 hours. It's totally unworkable, unless all you want is a one night stand with an obese elderly woman. Look, people don't buy water in bottles because it tastes better or is cheaper than tap water/drinking fountains. They do it because, at the end of the day, it's more convenient. The bottle provides a meaningful service. CL is better for some things but only a few. Classifieds are here to stay.
I did 30 years as a reporter but unlike most reporters, I came from a weekly newspaper. Unlike most reporters, too, I listened and have thought about this a lot. I think big city papers are not going to have smooth sailing until they charge a dime a day for online content. But most newspapers are not big city papers - the vast majority, in fact, if not 90 percent or more - and those papers will see classified advertising rise as most folks in the smalltown hinterland can't or won't fuss with ebay and craigslist.
I nibbled MNI at 3, got out just short of 5 and am now up to my ears in Lee and GCI - the two baskets that have half my 401k eggs. Love this board, by the way, and informed observations like yours make it a quality place.
GCI Going North:
excellent list but a little over optimistic, perhaps?
Charging for subscriptions isn't something on the radar screen, many of the subscribers that have left have been middle age and under, those left are older and have no interest in the computer world. The thing that gets lost in the move to e pages is the revenue from the circulation of the inserts, which could now be 25% of a paper's total revenue.
Your list of categories is real good, with maybe a few exceptions. If you mean big box stores that compete with grocers to be Walmart, Sam's, Costco then that likely won't happen due to the impact on the cost side. Walmart is the US largest grocer and their ad schedule is set for newspapers, spending less than 10% of their ad budget in newspaper circ. grocers are being squeezed on the cost side and they don't have extra money for ramped up ad spend in print. They did step up in the 4th quarter from what we measure, likely to see a hit in net margins in that group.
cars will definitely bounce back on the national and dealer group level and you are 100% correct there. It's the wild card in the group, iff the pent up demand is let loose then that segment explodes as it is still very effective and easy to measure in the mix.
Housing industry on the new builder and realtor side is still toast for 2011 and rapidly risisnf rates without government stimulus will lead to further declines in an already destroyed category, imo.
Banks will increase their spend if interest rates go up, advertising the need for deposits.
Health care has been a stellar consistent performer in print and has probably topped due to upcoming increased costs, if you believe them.
Macy's and others, who knows if they'll bump up and reinvest or let it drop to the bottomline? You obviously are/have been in the business or at least have a solid understanding of the industry.
Nice work on your list, if you are long MNI good luck, still seems like $5 was met with resistance, albeit on tiny holiday volume. HO HO HO HO HO
I'll answer those questions: grow subscription revenue? Charge for Web iPad-access - that oughta work. Industries that will increase advertising? National car manufacturers, housing industry companies, regional banks, hospitals/healthcare providers, insurers. . . let's see, who am I missing....grocers competing with big box superstores, big box superstores competing with grocers...oh, retailers like Macy's, Best Buy and consumer products companies, too. There, that's a pretty good list.
You're entitled to your negative outlook on MNI but I object to the notion that a buyout by GOOG is a sure thing. Anything is possible, but I fail to understand the reason for your surety. Seems like pure speculation to me.
Rising tides don't lift all boats if a company is poorly positioned to grow market share as the tide rises. If you believe the numbers ( like radio, tv and internet ad spending) that have been improving for the past 12 months, then clearly the tide has been rising and MNI is taking on water faster than ole gary boy can scoop it out.
I challenge anyone to amswer the following questions.
1. What can the company do to grow paid circulation?
2. What industries, and specifically what companies within those
industries will INCREASE their ad spend with MNI papers
in the next 12 months?
many people spout off, if we could only grow 1-2% next year then all will be golden. if that's all we are begging for, the bad news is, thats still -55% on the top line from just three years ago.
This looks to be dead wood until Google steps in and takes it out at $4 per share.
Adding to short position if it goes over $5 next week.
you have been - pathetically dead wrong on MNI and the sector
When all things are known to everyone then its already priced in..
LEE will have revenue growth in q2 2011. Does that deserve a 2x multiple?
LEE can triple and MNI will still double if it also achieves this small goal.
Fixed costs are high yes but the free cash flow is covering them and now the economy looks to grow..
Rising tide lifts all boats - even partially sunken ones.
When they are already at the bottom of the ocean there is minimal downside.