check out the story from reuters about online readership and revenue over taking print. It's clickable right from the main MN I page in Yahoo.
The trend continues.
I am moving from strong sell to hold right now as this one should move sideways for a while. I will cover half my short this morning, but only in this stock. I remain bearish short term on the market overall and the Japan situation certainly won't help the big multinationals on the DOW.
had to give your message 5 stars. excellent info here, especially the railroad info monthly pdf of economic activity. Everything you need to know is right there, and I agree these reports say things are slow go but not disastrous.
Thanks for the links, I have bookmarked them all and will refer to them often.
The one factor is the pyschology of what's happening in the market right now. People are talking about it, and seeing the market drop makes people feel less wealthy. Granted it's on paper unless you sell, but the
average person MAY be feeling like things are going south again
We won't really know what happens until after labor day when all the big boys come back from the Hamptons and overseas excursions and step back in.It just feels to me like we've got a long way down due to a number of issues.
There is nothing solid to hang my hat on, no real catalyst for growth and too much negative from around the world.
Hey news, you seem to like economics stuff.
1. Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce index. Real-time, up to date truck traffic numbers. Fantastic.
2. Association of American Railroads. Just amazing. Their monthly rail numbers, The Rail Times Indicator report is probably the single greatest and sanest compilation of metrics in the business.
3. Dean Baker. Just trust me.
4. Edward Hugh. All you need to know about Europe. Just hired by Nouriel Roubini
Btw, all seem to point at a stalled-out, albeit stable economy. Ceridians numbers came out today, trucking down by 0.2 percent. So not bad. Enjoy!
I did expect the correction to happen more quickly than it did, but waiting it out was worthwhile and I only had a few stocks taken away.
The correction will be more serious than i first thought, we COULD even test the March 2009 lows. Things go in cycles and we never did validate those lows on the move up. Not likely,but possible from a technical perspective. if Europe continues to implode then 6,000 on the Dow, or lower, is a real possibility.
We would all be eating potatoes, so Idaho farmland looks like a solid investment right now. :)
excellent analysis of the crappy situation 43 million american homes are in. you are correct po boyz, and it does appear that Europe is ready to collapse which would be utterly disastrous to the large multi-nationals doing business there. It's 25% of our export market from what I have seen. Definitely enough to make the great recession look like a minor bump in the economy.
It might be 9500 or lower, on the dow in the next few months. Volatility is the way to play it here.
Well, were you really expecting the correction to take nearly 4 months to happen, from the time in which you were predicting it? That wasn't my impression at the time. You thought a decline was impending.
I agree that gas prices had SOMETHING to do with it, though I dispute that they were the main driver of laxity in our economy. Fact is...
People are wicked, wicked f@@ked in their houses right now. An extra hundred bucks a month in gas is bad, but what's really really bad is people who thought they had an extra 200k around, spent like they did have an extra 200k around and then, poof. The clock struck midnight and all they had was a pumpkin. So the economy tries to lurch ahead in fits, but people have no money to spend, so it just dies. When I saw rail and freight numbers start to level off in April-May, I knew we were in for it. Essentially, the market was just overbought.
Another dynamic here is the European debt crisis, NOT the downgrade, which was nothing. There's real risk of systemic collapse in europe. The ECB is held hostage to a "no inflation, ever" ideology, when the only way that the PIIGS can ever get out of debt is through devaluation of one sort or another, or a bailout. The euros are truly this stupid- they really might run the thing into the ground.
As for the fluctuations... Oh yeah... it's gonna be a ride. Though, to tell you the truth, the Fed just backstopped endless money lending until 2013. So, we'll see no liquidity crisis like in 2008-09.
Poboyz, it was $4.50 per gallon gas that started the slide, and the political idiots in washington that came up with a half-baked plan that finished it off. I covered some this morning but I do expect the other foot to drop here in the next few weeks.
9,500 on the Dow, or lower, is not unreasonable and I see this rally as a sucker's rally. I do not expect to see oil/gas go back up higher than $4.50 here in the next few months as the unrest in the Middle East is for now off the front pages of the daily rags.
I have lost on MNI and just can't believe that I've been so wrong on this one for the past few months. Shoulda held onto my shorts and flushed the whole thing yesterday, but woulda coulda shoulda.
Looks like LEE may be heading to bankruptcy unless good things happen there quickly, and if not, BK talk around MNI is due to begin again.
Volatility is back in fashion and we are likely to see a LOT of these big moves up and down for awhile. Anyone agree/disagree?
I for one never disputed the fact that the market was gonna tank, but I did take umbrage with your "gas going to 8 dollars a gallon" and that this would be the mechanism of the economy sinking.
I think you just had the insight to know that the market was gonna tank cause it was overbought. You had the gestalt down pat, just your rational was off.
So Longtime, in one of my posts in April I predicted that the market would correct down to 9500 level and you told me I was hysterical. You said I was out of my mind, and I begged you and others to cover all gains with covered calls or puts, protecting the gains you had. I seemed to be more right than you, again. I was expecting this to happen and lo and behold, it did. I am about ready to buy back the calls I sold on Wells fargo, Walgreens, GE a dnother stocks I own. I don't know if the bottoms in here or not, but these prices seem much more realistic to me than the 12,800 level hype spin of just a few weeks ago.
Longtime, don't get me wrong and quit acting like I am hysterical. My thesis remains solid, the COST OF GAS will have a huge impact on the economy. It's just that simple. I am not disputing that companies are starting to hire. The net impact of $4 gas has yet to show up in the financials, but it will. It will show up with a vengeance.
The unemployement rate in almost every state is still stubbornly high at this stage of a recovery, wouldn't you agree? Add in the fact that government spending and lower taxes have swelled the deficit and the long range impact of all these factors will be devastating. I remain confident that I am right, and only time will tell. I refuse to buy into this sucker rally and remain well ahead of the curve this year being short. days like yesterday confirmed this in my mind.