today almost 100k call options for XLE expired worthless. on the day oih hit 120 range XLE had highest buying interest and in one day 100k option calls changed hands, direction of OIH is depend heavily on oil prices now. I think oil should go up. people ignoring all the bullish factors like they did all the bearish ones when oil was high.
in couple of weeks gasoline and distillate level will be lower than average and opec cuts take effect. that is why i think oil has seen a bottom today. ( not trying to be rude ).
OIH has not closed below its 20 day MA since October and that is still bullish. furthermore, with oil closing down and oih up again u can make a case for underlying strength in OIH. of course much of the strength came in the form of Jan contracts. they were up today.
Nat gas next resistance is $8.50 then it is in break out mode. as for oil, once it starts the uptrend it will be very sharp and sudden. then watch out for new highs in OIH.
as for NBR it is so puzzling at this point it is lagging the land drillers on the percentage gain basis. hopefully it catch up.