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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

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  • doubledown1967 doubledown1967 Aug 29, 2003 4:12 PM Flag

    NFLX overvauled

    I'm not short yet, but will be as soon as I can get some short shares from my broker. Netflix has a good idea, but the valuation is too high and competition is building. Stock will run with the market in the short-term, but eventually it will come down to a more justified valuation IMHO.

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    • You can't get short shares from your broker? What does that mean?

      Think. Think. Think.

    • Here's a clue: The fact that it's difficult for you to find shares to short?

      This is a warning.

      Like a big neon sign, right in your face, saying:

      Danger! This stock has a high short interest! You're going to get burned!

      And if that's not enough, as I pointed out before, your "valuation" analysis is wrong.

      Why do you think the CFO is buying in the open market, with his own cash, preventing himself from selling for 6 months?!?!

    • Are people blind?

      What is the problem here? It is scary to think that some many people cannot see what seems so clear to me.
      Netflix is a new company with a new product. Number one in marketshare and number one is service. There is no other company that offers the service that comes even close. If there was to be a problem with competition in the future, Netflix will take to court all this companies and I would assume get some kind of royalty. I can tell you right now, that is big money business.
      The current price is not 'overvalued' as the earnings growth should increase exponentially (on an annual basis)
      The business model will make the earnings grow faster as more and more customers sign in and more and more customers upgrade their plans. We are close to Christmas, last year more DVD players than VCRs were sold and this year is going to be the same. Within 5 years you can kiss VCRs bye bye and we are possition to make a killing on the market. I would think about selling then, once the market starts slowing down. Till then, I am holding my shares and increasing my possition whenever we get a dip.

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