Pick one from one to three months period.
>>The movie studios have grouped their efforts to deliver via the internet.
They do have FIRST MOVER advantage!<<
As polyflix stated, the technology and potential market for this type of video delivery is so far away, I'd be surprised it was still around in a year from now. First you need a broadband connection which only 20% of American households have currently. Then it takes 90 mins to 2hours to download to your computer, after which you can watch it on your '17 or '19 computer monitor with crappy sound. If you're lucky enough to have a video card with TV out (probably 2% or less) or DVI (even less) then you get to hook up your computer to your TV and watch the crappy quality film on a larger screen. Great entertainment!
Investors like yourself are so clueless with regards to this market that it's funny. Your name says it all -- walmart's online DVD rental business is better than Netflix'! HA!
Good Luck (you'll need it)
At the end of the day,it is a minor fact about BBI's business model over the past 15 years. For some people, the fact that they had to pay late fees for so many years will affect their decision. Reed Hastings and his colleagues have a marketing message that is "No Late Fees". It's part of the paradigm shift. This company innovated a system that eliminates late fees. Now BBI comes around with a similar system and now says no late fees? Some will miss the irony, some won't.
wmt_ wrote: "If you believe so strongly in First Mover advantage, than NFLX has it in DVD home delievery. BUT they do NOT have it in GAMES or Delivery on demand over the Intermet."
Right now VOD is offered by a individual cable operators to subscribers of their specific system, and Internet delivery is limited to a few titles that can be viewed only in a window on a PC. In my opinion, THERE IS NO FIRST MOVER (yet) in the business of offering thousands of titles at DVD or better quality to a viewer nationwide regardless of who their cable operator or their ISP is. IMO that's what it will take to displace DVD rental as the primary medium for movie delivery to the home.
The world of set-top boxes, digital video recorders, and carrier infrastructure (think: massive server farms to hold all the movies!) isn't there yet, although bits and pieces of it can be seen at the trade shows. For all the hype, penetration of broadband Internet to the home isn't that great yet, either. It's all gonna take a few more years.
When it does begin to gel, NFLX will have as much opportunity to be the first mover as any other company. Probably more; they've got name recognition and a well-engineered portal. You can bet they're working on it.
jimmy what does having late fees at blockbuster have to do with selecting a service? i for one will go with the best service which best meets my needs. i must disclose though that i have not had many late fees over the years as i am able to return the movies on time.
This isn't about Games or VOD. NFLX is the first mover in the segment that matters, DVD home delivery. You have a neurotic habit of changing the subject in a debate.
Tell you what, skippy, lets defer further discussion to a year from now. Time will tell. Every day that passes it gets worse for you. So how about it, discuss again on Nov. 24, 2004? I'm ready to put it on my calendar right now. Let's go, my confidence vs. yours. What's your e-mail address?
Niche market with nowhere to go? LOL The strategic plan of this company is known only to a few. If you want a hint, why don't you study the resumes of the people who are on The Board of Directors of NFLX. Then look at BBI's Corporate Governance. You will see a clear distinction between NFLX (High Tech e.g. PureAtria, Expedia & The Screen Actors Guild) and BBI (Retail, e.g. 7 Eleven, The Bombay Company and of course Viacom). NFLX - Silicon Valley BBI - Dallas, TX (no offense friends in TX!) The point is that the paradigm shift that is happening in this industry will germinate in the minds of people who have done similar things already in a place where these types of changes have come from in the past.
December will come and go fast. There will be many DVD players purchased in the next 6 weeks. (Probably more than in the previous 3-4 months) This Q4 and upcoming Q1 might be very painful for shorts as this thing accelerates.
But you're probably right, BBI will come from nowhere and provide a better web site, a better service at a better price AND offer games. AND they probably won't have to worry about all of us who had to hand out $5 and $10 late fees because we returned a movie late. You're right, everyone will probably forget that. You're also probably right that the DVD format will be long gone in just a couple of years and that selection won't matter so much as will the ability to watch one of 50 or 100 preselected VOD movies. You're probably right, people hate selection of over 15,000 titles.
But, let's find out. How about it? Nov. 24, 2004?