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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • kaiju05 kaiju05 Dec 23, 2003 11:16 AM Flag


    When shipping form netflix it only takes 1 day. When I send it back it takes 3 days. What a waste of time this was.

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    • >You can get wealthy going long and short this stock.

      Busted, you said it wmt.

    • Correction to my previous post; I believe less than 10% of the 'shorts' are really short. Others are kickin/yellin because they let this one go by and want in at yesterdays price.

    • Good, he'll enjoy the 1 day turn around. It's almost comical watching this board; so many shorts are yelling/screaming. If they indeed believe it's such a great short, then this is easy money. Just short and sit back to collect your money later, like stealing candies from babies. I'm willing to bet less than 10% of the 'shorts' are not short at all, instead they let this one pass by and are cryin' wolf.

    • Great news;
      "Of course I live in greater Atlanta area, clearly in the 1-day delivery cycle zone."

      Just gave gift sub to my son in Peachtree City

    • I'm not sure what shorts are whining about. I am on a 8-out plan. Sent 3 DVDs yesterday and I got a mail informing that they shipped 3 today. Of course I live in greater Atlanta area, clearly in the 1-day delivery cycle zone.

    • K Mota, a business like this run correctly there should be an ebb and flow related to sub acquisition. I also have noticed slowing of movie "check in" times, but we are also dealing with the slowness of the USPS this time of year.

    • According to people I personally know, right now the service does suck, However I took that as a positive, To many subs for the employees, Which means they have to open more outlets, hire more people, get more DVD, at probably a lower price, Buying in bulk. and more profitable that they expected, I suspect they will be back to for early Jan.

    • More old news and old messages from old "WMT is better". I've got 123 movies in my queue. Three are on wait status, and one of those is a new release (Freaky Friday). The long waits happened last year when they weren't ready for the surge of new business. Sort of a high class problem to have. I'm guessing they'll be ready this year. By the way, if I mail my movies Monday, I get replacements on Friday. I typically watch 5-6 movies per month and have for about 3 years. Service sucks, or just running out of things to bash? I've been a stockholder since the IPO, buying more at $10 and more at $5.50ish. I've taken profits along the way. There have been shorts committed to this stock's demise ever since they went public. I'm sure Younessi and Wmt is better are smarter than any of those guys. MOASS 2 is coming.

    • >First of all it's $1.3b market cap not $1.5b, >at $1.6b market cap we're at $60/share and >you are officialy broke from your shorts at >$46, $48, and $50. BUT...we'll assume the >stock price is $60/share and the market cap >is $1.5b for the below recap.

      Forgive the typo, at $60/share market cap is $1.48b or rounded up to $1.5b (not $1.6b).

    • >why not look at thier projected GAAP earnings >for the next Qtr? Then tell me based on that income how you >justify $1.5 billion market cap.

      First of all it's $1.3b market cap not $1.5b, at $1.6b market cap we're at $60/share and you are officialy broke from your shorts at $46, $48, and $50. BUT...we'll assume the stock price is $60/share and the market cap is $1.5b for the below recap.

      We'll assume low side NFLX only gets 2m subs (avg $20/sub) in 2004 generating ~$500m in revenues.
      Current costs remain the same and NFLX acheives it's Q3 4.1% profit margin (which is very conservative, as economies of scale go up costs go down, but let's play with conservative numbers).

      4.1% profit margin on $500m generates $20.5m in earnings for 2004 or 82 cents a share. At 82 cents a share the $60 price has a PE of 73, not exactly cheap, but not absurdly high either for a fast growth business.

      Personally I think 2004 earnings will be closer to the $1.09/range resulting in a PE of 55. To get that earnings only takes a continuing downtrend of costs and an incrase of subs over the 2m mark (I expect we'll be close to 3m or 4m by end of 2004).

      Now...let's talk about you.

      >Not to mention how the competition might >impact that income in 2004.

      Might. Might? If it shows up why not start shorting then? You long term shorts confuse me. There's plenty to be made in daytrading the dips, but right now (correct me if I'm wrong) are short at $46, $48, and $50.51.

      You're betting that competition *might* impact the income in 2004. VOD *might* cut into them?

      So answer me this.

      Why in your mind are you willing to place shorts now at $46, $48, and $50.51 (if I've got the numbers wrong I'm sorry) for something that MIGHT happen next year?

      That doesn't seem like smart investing to me.

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