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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

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  • telecom_funds telecom_funds Jun 7, 2011 12:42 PM Flag

    The Trader's Take -

    seems like a risky proposition if the market, as a whole, is heading lower

    do you expect nflx to swim against the tide

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    • Absolutely, look at the Beta on NFLX to the SP-500 it's less than 1!

      • 1 Reply to CruisinForGold
      • Ok - Back in the Trading Turret - Spymare/Malware Vanquished!

        Now onto NFLX. What's the position, what's the trade.

        Let's recap a little here -

        1) NFLX has been virtually non-stop since making the low 231.11. As a matter of fact that low hit the long term support trendline from 2010 into 2011 and was a great big BUY BUY BUY signal. Enough said!

        2) The move since 231.11 hit it's near term peak at 277.7 a mere 48 hours ago (since like a week already). That's 46.59 points. A fibanocci series on this move puts supports as follows:

        0.764 - 266.7
        0.618 - 259.9
        0.5 - 254.4
        0.382 - 248.9
        0.236 - 242.2

        3) There was a 29.83 trading zone from the 25 April high to the 27 April low (boy doesn't NFLX like to swing rather rapidly). That trading zone was broken on 25 May and looks like a projection to 288 is in order to finish off that action.

        4) The whole move since 14 Feb until the breakout on 25 May is a huge cup-n-handle pattern with 61.57 points to go before the move is exhausted. That would be around 320.

        5) Indicators - Daily
        MACD - have been falling off rapidly from this peaking action. Although there has been no crossover yet they are leaning bearishly. I run both Buy and Sell MACD. Buy MACD is about to cross depending on today's trading action. Sell MACD has not triggered. I would note that the MACD is divergent to the current 270.7 high (i.e. MACD is at a lower high to the previous high at 254.98).
        Stochastics - short-term have crossed. longer-term have not.
        RSI- has just crossed into the +75 levels and appears to want to go higher. That's bullish.
        TimeSegmented Volume - is just coming off a high that has equaled the Feb and April highs.
        MoneyStream - has just come off a new high and is confirming the 277.7 level as a valid high on a continuing trend.
        Bollinger Bands - price action has been touching or exceeding the Upper Bollinger Band since 25 May. We finally fell away on the 2 June High. I like the look of the Bollinger Bands they are positioned Bullishly for higher price action to come.
        Moving Averages - my favorite 28-day EMA has fairly well defined bull-bear areas for NFLX. The 28-day EMA yesterday was at 252 and rising about 1 point per day. That's a line in the sand for a pullback. 50-day MA is around 243.6x need I say more. It just so happens that long-term trendline is also around 246.7x yesterday.

        6) Indicators - hourly
        My favorite RSI signalled oversold on 6 June's closing action (that is a sub-20's reading). It has now jumped back above the 40's. A move back down below the 40's with prices lower than 260 would signal a BUY BUY BUY signal. MACD also created a large downside difference on 6 June and price breaking 260 will likely create a trading divergence now.

        I think a buy in the 258/259 area will create a good pivot point on this pullback. Leave some powder dry should you get an opportunity back around the 254/255 level of the old high - that would be an Excellent Buy point!

        All IMHO!

        Good Luck

95.94+0.11(+0.11%)Sep 23 4:00 PMEDT