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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • CruisinForGold CruisinForGold Jun 6, 2011 10:25 PM Flag

    The Trader's Take -

    Ok we are on one of Mr Toad's Wild Ride (for you Disney park fans out there)!

    I'm riding this bucking Bronco like no tomorrow.

    First off, my PC is back in action after ridding myself of the Sysguard virus - nasty little thing that disables the task manager, changes permissions on all your critical files, closes all known to man anti-virus tools and is a regular pain in the you know what.

    Now on to the trading action in NFLX.

    I told you here to get short/buy puts - on two occasions

    and to cover/go long into the close Friday. And then to add to the short/put position into the close Friday. Payday
    was today or first thing tomorrow.

    It's headed right where I told ya - and when it gets there Buy Buy Buy!

    Cause the Hourly signals are all in the Oversold levels. This is going to springboard back up - IMHO!

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    • Thank you. Would you start a new thread so your answer is easier to find, please? Thank you.

    • I say - Are We There Yet?

      Nada - we are in the short-run headed to the 228/229 level. IMHO - I believe we are going to setup for a complex head-n-shoulders on the charts.

      I think we started the process back in Early April with the rise to the upper 248's for the left shoulder. The upper 277's for the head and now..

      We begin building our the right shoulder with a base in the 228/229 area. This is the extension of the supporting line across the lows of the "potential" left shoulder period from 224.41 to 225.3. That line has been rising and is now in the 228.3x area.

      I don't think it will take much longer to get down there - then you'll get a good bounce buy going back into the 247/248's.

      For now - short/buy puts - it's going lower from here!

    • No - for NLFX it is the 28 July 2010 low, the 10 March 2011 reversal low. This line was tapped a few weeks ago on 17 May 2011 but the stock reversed out of the move.

      Yesterday on the other hand was a hard push through with no reversal back over the line.

      I consider that a valid break with downside measuring potential that the bulls won't like.

      What is it - to the 183/184 levels!!!!

      I honor the TA on the way up - I'm going to honor the TA on the way down!

      I short via long puts today!

    • What do you use to define the long term trend line. Weekly chart over 52 weeks?

    • As I said yesterday, pullback was into the vicinity of 247.xx - actually 244.26 and we tap the 50-day MA yesterday and today at 246.4x.

      Yowza! That is a wild ride - much more than I anticipated.

      We hit the first fibanocci value this am::
      0.236 - 252.1x
      0.382 - 257.0x
      0.500 - 261.0x
      0.618 - 264.9x
      0.764 - 269.8x
      and of course 1.00 - 277.7

      We broke the pullback channel lines on the upside Wed and on the downside yesterday and we rebroke it today - Hmm!

      Well I did load the boat into the pullback and I did sell my protection on the break of 250 (too early I might add) and looked at lots of red on my screen.

      In addition, I added lots of my fave stocks into the swoon yesterday - WYNN, AAPL, CRM, GOOG, VMW, RVBD, SPY, QLD too name a few. Why you ask - because I think we are near a turning point at least for a good size bounce. Most of those trades are doing very well today.

      As for NFLX - I am significantly suprised that the long-term trendline that I spoke of from the 2010 area was broken yesterday at 255.1x. Since there has been no quick bounce-back, I have to assume there is going to be further downside pressures - I am therefore pulling in by Horns on NFLX!

      There is usually a significant retest of the trendline break which will see the stock price go back up and kiss the line again. As the line is rising on a daily basis that kiss could be significantly higher - that will be the opportunity to short in a big way.

      I jumped out of most of my buys this am - having bought into the mid 240's I was very happy to see the 25x's today. I let the whole position go here except for the 255 lottery ticket buys in case there is a last ditch attempt to remount that broken long-term trend line.

      I cannot ignore long-term trendline breaks - they are serious in my book. This might not show further weakness in the near term (might even show a little pizzaz) but make no mistake that was a serious breach - IMHO!

      Good Luck to All!

    • You had to cover/go long with that break of 250!

      I bought common, calls in various strikes and timeframes.

      Upside right now "possible" to the 261's today or tomorrow!

      On this dip to 247.72 (or somewhere close by) the weekly 30-minute) RSI went sub-20's - did this also on 6 June's low. Hourly RSI went sub-20's. Next day the stock was up 6.83 off that 6 June low.

      If this 247.72 is the bottom of this pullback then a Fibanocci retracement is as follows:

      0.236 - 254.8x
      0.382 - 259.1x
      0.500 - 262.7x
      0.618 - 266.2x
      0.764 - 270.6x
      and of course 1.00 - 277.7

      There's also the potential for an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern here with the head at 247.72 and the neckline at 262 or approx a 14 point jump over the neckline if it plays out to the 275-277 area.

      And what is that on the hourly - an actual green candlestick!

    • Tossing the Puts Here - Don't Need No More Protection Here in the 250's!!!

    • Sandy..,

      Isn't it always the case - if you had waited one more day to cover that short!

      It's capitulation day - Buy Buy Buy!

    • Also, I'm buying some 17 June 255 Calls in here for a reversal today or tomorrow!

    • You should be buying long against your put position here!

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