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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

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  • techstrategy techstrategy Jul 5, 2011 5:52 PM Flag

    "Flight to Safety"

    The fact that he is short shows that he believes at some point soon the stock will reflect its fundamental value, which is a small fraction of the current stock price.

    Today was perfect. Average income in the 43 countries where NFLX is launching is about $12K. The median is much lower as they have a very skewed distribution. Which means maybe 10% of that population might be in the addressable market. Of which, NFLX will be lucky to penetrate 50%.

    This scam is nearing an end. They have to start properly accounting for rapidly growing content cost. Amazon Prime has created some nicks. YouTube purchasing Hulu is going to create some gaping wounds. The strategy of buying license rights for fixed sums ONLY works while you have a massive growth rate. Once confronted with other free to consumer options (Prime and YouTube), the growth will slow (if not reverse). All of you "brilliant" longs will be hosed because it would tank 30-40 points on the formal Hulu announcement at this point...

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