Analysts have estimated EPS 2011 ~$5, EPS 2012 ~6, and for a growth stock a P/E of 25-35, let's say 30, is justified. That would put a fair price at $150 now and $180 looking forward a year. Netflix has been bashed too much socially and technically; all my friends who were mad has hell at the recent decisions by Netflix are, after lots of growling, sticking with Netflix because they alternatives SUCK! (I am not going to watch HULU with ads, Amazon has no queue system, Redbox means gas money getting and returning.)
You do know that since the split up, the remainder of the 23.5 millions (if they still subscribe) will likely only sticking with the streaming part, especially after the split-up. So looking at $10 max per subscriber, the next earning report is going to be brutal. I think the longs need protective puts, and the shorts need to cover at every 10 interval to be safe. Should be at 110 by the beginning of October, splash back to 120 by mid-Oct., and ultimately slide to 100 and below be the end of next month when people realize they need to cut back a lot for the holidays. I am a current Netflix user myself, only reason to have that is for my business. If just at home, I would have cut it already.
Anal-ists have "ESTIMATE"- oh my little friend, you sure haven't been in or around the market for more than a few minutes, have you? You can wish in one hand, and as they say "poop" in the other and see which one fills up first. If we all had just $1 for all the "anal-ists" and their crystal ball "predictions" that were not just kind of wrong, but DEAD WRONG, we'd all be MILLIONAIRES many times over. The OLDEST trick on Wall St. is for the brokerage houses to be pumping a stock with positive reviews from their supposedly "independent" anal-ist division, while their trading desk is DUMPING en-mass for large clients and also their hedge fund division is SHORTING the living sh t out of the stock. You have a LOT to learn pal. You just keep believing those anal-ists and THEY will be very RICH and YOU will be poorer than you already are.
What could possibly value it at a p/e of 20? It's a ZERO growth proposition and stock from here on out. It's got about 5 major competitors all jumping in with both feet, with HUGE war chests of cash, with BRANDS and names, with far more market clout and footprint- why would a studio ink a deal with netflix when Apple or Amazon is sitting across the table willing to pay the same or more? Who do you think INSTANTLY has more eyeballs and page views and an INSTANT customer base? If Amazon signs up even 1/100th of its loyal customer base - netflix is DONE. A p/e of 20 has to mean growth- and NO ONE sees any growth in the future of netflix. They are presently LOSING subscribers by the truck load- NEGATIVE growth - and they don't have any cash or anything to offer to go out and "buy" or gain subscribers. They are in the perfect STORM- and it's going to just get uglier from here on out.