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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • holywallst holywallst Jan 31, 2013 10:04 PM Flag

    Another reason to be bullish on NFLX short term is this...

    NFLX management has not announced a secondary offering/dilution yet even after stock has gone to $170+.

    A co. with such low cash at hand and in dire need of money with extremely high P/E, mounting content costs, parabolic cash burn and dont even get me started on the debt issues, the mgmt has still NOT issued secondary for dilution. Thats something to close your eyes and think deeply about.

    That could mean only one thing: NFLX mgmt might be expecting, in my opinion, that the MMs will inflate the stock a little higher in the short-term, squeeze out the last remaining bravest of shorts and then when the price goes up just so much, from even current levels, just enough as to make all shorts throw in the towel and kiss their lifesavings goodbye, THEN & ONLY THEN may they issue secondary shares and drop it to, i dont know, lets say $110-$120 for argument sake. thats my guess, my opinion.

    So that is my guess, a pure guess only. That could be the only reason i personally think why mgmt hasnt issued secondary yet, but it also then means that in the short term you cant go wrong being bullish on NFLX (for daytrading this) as the bubble has more room to inflate. I am bullish in the very short-term for that reason too.... dont get me wrong, i do believe its a bubble, but i also believe that the bubble has room & market irrationality in place to inflate some more...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • lowercasepublicprofile lowercasepublicprofile Jan 31, 2013 10:33 PM Flag

      Wrong! How could they offer a secondary at these high prices. No one with a brain would give them millions of dollars in exchange for stock that is atleast 50% over valued. Nflx would have to offer the secondary at $110 per share to get any takers, then that would tank the stock price to its right value, about $110 per share. So Nflx is screwed until the stock price falls to a more reasonable value.

      • 1 Reply to lowercasepublicprofile
      • No, but if I have to guess, I would say that if (a big IF) mgmt is counting on the MMs to come through for them and take the price just a little bit higher artificially any which way the MMs can, say to $180s or so, just temporarily in order to get all remaining retail shorts flushed out and they all throw in the towel at that level, then once that goal is accomplished and the shorts' monies are all sealed off and taken home by the MMs, then maybe NFLX can get the green signal to issue secondary shares at $110-$120 from them. That would be my guess. Again, its only a guess. I could see that happening, cant you? I mean a sudden drop from $180 to $120 on secondary news? It just may take time, oh and it works perfectly. Feb options will expire Feb 15. How about they do it on Feb 18 or later after PUT owners lose it all...sounds like a plan to me.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • cool story bro

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