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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • nw2000_ca nw2000_ca May 7, 2013 11:23 AM Flag

    Delta for the call is docked at 0.35, suggesting a 35% chance the position will land in the money ahead of expiration.

    NFLX has been in consolidation mode lately, with the shares off 6% from the annual high of $224.30 they tagged on April 24. However, one group of speculators in today's session is eyeing a rebound through week's end, and is picking up the stock's weekly 5/10 215-strike call for a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $1.99. A healthy portion of the 3,598 contracts traded have gone off at the ask price, implied volatility has surged 7.4 percentage points, and volume is outstripping open interest, pointing to buy-to-open activity. In order for these out-of-the-money calls to be profitable, NFLX must be trading north of $216.99 (strike price plus the VWAP) by Friday's close. This breakeven mark represents expected upside of 2.9% from Netflix's current price of $210.95. Delta for the call is docked at 0.35, suggesting a 35% chance the position will land in the money ahead of expiration. Should the stock fail to topple the strike price, the most today's traders have put on the line is the initial premium paid.

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    • May 9, 2013 4:28 PM Flag

      Another example of the options action telling us that the manipulators were moving to the buy side. This is a trading stock that you have to trade from both sides. And all you have to do is read the signs in the options market.

    • There is no possible way that NFLX could get as high $216.99 by Friday's close. It can't hold a gain more than a few minutes let alone days! It's just not possible in my opinion. I would only gamble on this one going down down down down down...there is no upside potential left for NFLX. Nothing but bad news out day after day, and more and more competition every day. Even good news and upgrades couldn't make this dead broken stock pop to the upside. Short it, it's all that's left...good luck!

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 2 Replies to tpope002
      • I disagree. This stock makes no sense at all. Look back at what has happened recently and what happened to the stock price.

        Senior notes converted to stock + price goes up.

        House of Card is available as DVD EVERYWHERE. Netflix doesn't even own the rights, only to streaming HOC and paid the 100 million + all the advertising. Price still went up.

        Lost 1700 + titles in content. Price goes up.

        Insiders selling HUGE amounts of shares within 48 hours. Price goes up.

        They gain rights to stream 5 cartoons AFTER they have been shown at least once. Stock goes up.

        If Hastings were smart, he would issue a stock offering to cover some of the debt and bring in some cash. I'm willing to bet if he did that the stock would hit $275 or maybe $300

      • May 7, 2013 11:33 AM Flag

        You still don't understand that this stock is controlled by big money funds. Option premiums make it profitable for them to play the manipulation game. And as soon as you think the only direction it can go is down, it can go up 10 bucks. Plenty of short positions always add fuel to a rally.

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