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Xyratex Ltd. Şti. Message Board

  • soulec soulec Feb 5, 2013 3:07 PM Flag

    Ben....OT Foolish Bloggers?

    "The company designs, manufacturers, and sells hard disk drives for enterprise storage applications worldwide. The products are used in enterprise servers, mainframes, and desktop computers. Investors remain concerned that flash storage devices are replacing hard disk drives, but the company has the cash flow to suggest otherwise."

    Ben, do these new bloggers score a C+ on their STX company knowledge? Am I just a little "cynical" about their knowledge or that EVERYONE is ignoring the fact STX has both hybrid drives and flash offerings, both WDC/STX have bought/established relationship with FAB/NAND suppliers or that both sell SSD drives. STX/Xyratex are OEM partners with a pure play flash enterprise storage producer, via. Samsung.

    I want even bring up the fact he is comparing cash flow to a historically high margin based on that little flood a couple of years ago and the cash flow of two companies. With that said, that is why the stock price surged from $11's to $30's, so now what happens if cash flow goes down along with margins?

    He is late to the party for a buy, maybe a hold, STX sp historically is high and he seems to think its a buy and nothing in the past could rear its ugly head, because of a dividend? What about the risk factor of a market at 5 year highs, flat guidance by STX, etc.

    I'm concerned I will turn into Cramer and burst in on a live CNBC interview, roll up my sleeve's and vent in a very loud voice.

    STX is paying a dividend, so is WDC!

    I hope I'm wrong and STX goes higher, but I wouldn't recommend it to my clients, it was a buy at $11 and a sell or hold in the mid 30's for those who are willing to take the risk with their profits for a dividend...IMO!

    Don't forget about Genworth earnings after close and first CC by our new CEO tomorrow AM, worth the free ticket price..IMO!

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    • Hi Soule,

      I don't bother reading MF. Seldom SA but even then more often to just cut to the comments to skim for often more logical thoughts. Don't blame you for not reccing STX but I still hold a good sized position, having made a lot of dough trading it lately. HDDs are mature with stagnating/falling PC's but overall storage still on a tear. With hundreds of millions of new internet capable compute devices being added each year and a higher HDD cost structure duopoly in place, I like their prospects. BTW, people are pumping WDC's coming helium drives and they do sound pretty cool. Still wondering about XRTX cuz I know they too were working on helium drives at one point.

      Here's my foolish thought on the matter: Of the HDD storage triad(WDC/STX/XRTX), WDC is up today 2.9%. The other 2/3 of the triad(STX/XRTX) are both up an identical 1.9%, and 1.9% is 2/3 of 2.9%. Heck, maybe i'll submit that!

      • 1 Reply to cben15606
      • I understand Ben, it just helps to know who has positive or negative sentiment on stocks, people do make decisions based on others opinions.

        You brought up my point, take the big profits and just trade them. Less risk and if or when they make a move down, buy value. I've been telling people for years STX is one of the best trading stocks, it you follow then you will see a $1 here and a $1 there, they move quickly.

        I stayed with my Sandisk buy(2009) long-term. I see more benefits from /Sandisk via new tablets/gadgets, not that HDD is going to disappear overnight, but eventually they will have to make the transition to more SSD/NAND products and Sandisk is the 800lb Gorilla in that market, so they already have the relationships and provide product to the companies that are taken over the market via tablets, smartphones, etc..

        Also, was sorry to see Microsoft get slammed for the Surface, seems like a great idea. But in the past, even the big 5 box makers got slammed over some of their boxes, so as of now, I think its a good idea for Microsoft to move in a direction since forcing box makers to buy a license is no longer in the play book.

        I'm happy with Genworth CC and so far the street has supported the stock!

        Good luch with STX long position, I'm with you on XRTX. Although Baker Street killed the volume and momentum, I still believe in management, product and direction over the long run.