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TravelCenters of America LLC Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Mar 18, 2012 11:27 AM Flag

    TA should earn at least $1.50 this year...

    ...by my caculations. Unless management does something stupid, like another dilutive secondary offering. (I'm convinced the stock would have rallied a lot more, on this earnings release, if management hadn't damaged so much trust, in the past.)

    The fact of the matter is, the Street likes companies with earnings momentum, and the market cap is high enough here, and the price over $5, such that, while some kind of discount is warranted for the related party unseemliness, it is also true that earning momentum is key. I hardly think it unreasonable that, if we do $1.50++ in 2012, the stock couldn't possibly sell at 12-15x, and that we sell for somewhere around $18-25, a year from now.

    Conservatively, we should be selling for at least $10-15, in 6-12 months....and quite possibly $8-9 in the coming weeks, I still say.

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    • the bright line is that if they get too far out out of line, sue the p*ss out of them. But these people are no fools and they know that pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. And while all that is simply conjecture, what is readily apparent is that TA has turned the corned, and TA is cheap as H*ll-any way you want to measure it.
      Buy TA while it is cheap. If O'Brian and Portnoy cant run it investors will get someone else who will. But count on them to be with most shareholders as when all else fails, human beings can be counted on to take care of their own self-interests. And at this juncture shareholders, O'Brian, Portnoy, HPT, et all are all-repeat ALL- interested in TA doing well. Crunch the numbers and it is obvious that unless we have another economic calamity, TA is screamingly CHEAP.

    • I take it that SEC COI rules aren't tight enough to cover the conflict posed by Barry Portnoy et al? I wonder where the bright line preventing such incest among publically-traded companies would be?

    • yes...look at the EBITDAR TA is now throwing off, the increase in wholly-owned TA sites (free and clear of any mortgages), several (8?) prime highway greenfield sites zoned and ready for expansion, existing travel center sites that would be almost impossible to replace (at anywhere close to existing prices), the cash on the books, the large footprint TA now has coast-to-coast, the growing free cash flow, the high (huge) margins of TA's store sales (north of 55% for instance). With most stocks up significantly the last 3 years since the market bottom, TA is a screaming buy at these valuations. It is now TA's turn to rise and shine. 2011 was TA's first profitable year since TA went public, and management seems to be really focused on "doing better". At any rate, if TA were ever sold I would imagine the cheapest anyone could even come close to buying it would be a minimum of 2x current prices. Minimum I say. So let's sit on out A*s and let TA run now. Our patience is being rewarded handsomely and we are just getting started.

      • 1 Reply to granicus007
      • I agree...its just matter of time that WS love comes our way. However, looking at hind site at the purchase and dilution it seems it is helping us greatly in the past Q. Although it broke the back of the stock at time, going forward these sites and the ones we currently buying will add tremendously to our bottom line. According to the CC we didn't even get the full benefit of all the sites last Q. So Q1 will be first time with full affect of the last acquisition. Also, the recent buy in GA will be fully affected in the Q2.

 
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