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TravelCenters of America LLC Message Board

  • blueskydriving blueskydriving Jan 30, 2013 11:22 AM Flag

    The Spinning is getting sickening!!

    Boy the spin on CNBC is sickening ... it seems like they want the private investor to buy everything now! It's just gotten uncomfortable for me ... It feels like when a friend asked me to get into a business with him flipping beachside condos in Florida 10 years ago ... "every six condos, we can buy one outright with cash" ... I didn't (he lost his house and marriage) ... it's just like the analysts on CNBC that were saying that "AAPL was going to pass $1,000 per share, easy" (didn't happen) ... now, Cramer is foaming at the mouth and telling us to disregard the market hitting new highs while the economy is showing signs of slowing, "buy, buy, buy" ... now we have pundits on CNBC telling us that "investors buy stocks based upon earnings three to five years ahead" ... yeah, sure they do ... in the world of high frequency trading and day trading, are they really thinking five years ahead!... in any case, just consider that SWFT had 700+ fewer trucks on the road in the fourth quarter and (today), ABFS missed earnings ... truckers are getting hit hard today ...

    TA has had quite a run ... you did better than me Spartans ... great job! ... TA had seven percent of their pumps shut down in the fourth quarter ... and it is a historically weak quarter ... they will have a loss (analyst estimate -.11) ... don't get caught by surprise ... if you feel strongly, hold some ... but, please don't mortgage the house ... we (you) had a great run ... profit from it

    Other notes:
    WRT 7.75% Call 8/15 Mature 8/22 ... today's price $25.63
    EDT 7.875% Call 6/14 Mature 6/39 ... today's price $28.20
    HGH 7.875% Call 4/22 Mature 4/42 ... today's price $29/11
    PLP 8.0% Call 10/14 Mature 10/24 ... today's price $24.40 (par value $20.00)
    MFO 8.0% Call 4/17 Mature 4/42 ... today's price $25.86
    MHNA 8.25% Call 6/16 Mature 6/41 ... today's price $26.41
    MHNB 8.0% Call 3/17 Mature 3/42 ... today's price $26.72
    AVV 8.25% Call 12/16 Mature 12/41 ... today's price $28.01

    TANN 8.25% Call 1/16 Mature 1/28 ... today's price $25.38

    -----------------------------
    Each of these notes traded roughly at Par Value at the underwriters' offering and slowly gained their premium over time. So, if you think the markets are overdone and due for a pullback ... consider buying the TANN 8.25% notes. Enough said ... fire away.

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    • Your statements about the trucking industry are misleading. Swft decreased the number of trucks in q1/2012, i.e. a year ago. They have been slowly increasing that number in q3 and q4. And they said that they will increase their trucks by 300-500 this year. Abfs missed earnings due to higher labor costs. Their q4 revenues were flat and a beat. Also as i mentioned elsewhere, knight reported an earnings beat today.

      So the trucking industry is not doing that bad. In fact their only problem is that they have to pay more to their drivers, and that is definately a plus for ta.

    • You dont like the spin on CNBC, yet you thoughtthe SA article was the "definitive piece" on TA. Give me a break.

      • 2 Replies to art_vandelay_7
      • Nice Cheap shot Art ...

        Yes, I thought the SA article pointed out the undervalutation most of us had been discussing in a reasonably unbiased manner since the low $4's ... I actually thought Joe Springer tried to point out as many of the issues and concerns as could be done in a single article ... but, that was a long month ago ...

        On the other hand, CNBC has until yesterday had nothing but Spin, Spin, Spin ... there was absolutely no talk of geopolitical issues, climbing energy costs, the fact any earnings beat was on revised lower estimates (in many cases revised, revised lower estimates (is that "really" a beat?) ... nothing but spin ... in the past two days, CNBC is finally starting to bring on a few pundits that say the markets are a bit hot and may pull back ... but, even these previously hidden "experts" say things like "a brief pause" but the S&P will likely climb another 10%

        Hmmm, suddenly the entire Middle East is living in peace, the Europeans have figured it all out, and everyone's okay with $100 oil ... okay, then ... Buy, Buy, Buy!!!

        On the other hand, some of us understand that even hedge funds like volatility to make money ... so, they will "use" whatever they can to create volatility ... jobs numbers, oil costs, Middle Eastern tension, sequestration, European debt issues ... whatever they can find

        In terms of TA's current shareprice ... I'm on record as being out of position now ... so, let me spin in a somewhat honest manner ... first of all, I am very, very, very comfortable being "out of position" right now ... consider the following ... TA will post a loss in upcoming earnings ... UPS just missed and provided a weak forecast for 2013 (UPS is always right) ... the sequestration is going to be UGLY ... it will result in job cuts and budget cuts ... it will likely result in higher taxes ... $100 oil will slow down the economy ... the Middle East will make the news again in the Spring (always does) ... the Europeans have elections coming up (debt and austerity will once again become a topic of conversation) ... the markets will pull back and TA will pull back with it ... spin over ... glta
        --------------------------------------
        DALLAS (AP) -- United Parcel Service Inc. says weak global trade and a disappointing holiday-shopping season slowed it down in the fourth quarter.

        Profit in the last three months of 2012 fell short of Wall Street expectations. So did UPS's outlook for this year as the company took a cautious approach toward the global economy.

        UPS also forecast a "relatively flat" first quarter. Shares dropped 2 percent.

        "Overall we still see 2013 as a slow-growth economy," Chairman and CEO D. Scott Davis said Thursday on a conference call with analysts.

      • With interest rates sure to rise....money will continue to flow out of bonds funds and Tbills into stock mutual funds, ETF;s and high dividend paying stocks. PE's will rise as well. The economy is rebounding slowly. Companies have clean balance sheets as well as does TA.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Yes they do spin on both the up and down sides. They have a lot of air time to fill and jump on any trend. However, I am going to disagree about the economy slowing. What I see is that the economy is finally gaining some traction. I alluded to this in some other posts. It has been long enough to have every statement of a politician affect the market. It seems that the republicans have been neutered and are looking for a new narrative. The Fed is on the job and will stay there for some time. Lending is picking up and the run up in transports reflects a view that the economy is improving. Maybe the view is ahead of itself, but the things I see in my area says that the economy is moving up. I too saw some of the guests saying that people are TOO bullish and that is a reason the market will go down. I surely see plenty of pundits who are bearish. By no means is the market wildly bullish. We are just accustomed to gloom and doom and end of the world scenarios being considered as probable. I call B S on that. The end of the world is getting tiresome. And it is obviously WRONG! So cheer up. The Market will make new highs, because most participants expect the opposite,,,,,,,,,

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
TA
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