% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • GenJackripper GenJackripper Oct 11, 2003 3:38 PM Flag

    CXW's consensus CAGR is increased +35%

    The General notes (as he goes through his weekend ritual of recording end-of-week data summaries) that the consensus 5-year forward-looking CAGR for EPS growth for CXW has been increased from 10.0% to 13.5%.

    A reference to his archive of such data summaries indicates that this is the highest it's been in almost 4 years. Not since the week ending 11/19/99, when it was @ 14.1%, has it been this high.

    Of course, the company was a REIT back then and was trading under the symbol PZN.

    These statistical facts are not to be construed as an open invitation for some (wise-ass) commentary by CCA's survivors who've been through the slings and arrows of its outrageous fortunes.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • The General has had occasion this morning to revisit his calc sheet on CXW's trends following its action both yesterday and today, so this message is an update of what he sees CXW doing since he last updated it as posted in message #20892 (to which this message 'replies') some four months ago on 10/25/03.

      Trying to keep it simple, he sees CXW moving in one of two trading channels which he'll refer to as TC1 and TC2.

      Up until today, it was less clear which path CXW appears to want to take.

      TC1 has as its floor (F), the uptrend line which the General had designated as UTL4 in his message #20892.

      TC2 has as its floor (F), a very recently created uptrend line (which the General has designated UTL5).

      UTL5's slope is 52.44% steeper than UTL4's is.

      Here is how the two "floors" and their associated ASSUMED trading channels compare from an appreciation standpoint over the following periods of time. Figures are rounded off to the nearest penny.

      Note: There is a range given for both the averaged monthly and annual appreciation figures because some annual periods consist of 260 weekdays whereas others have 261 weekdays to them and the General calcs slopes on the basis of weekdays rather than market-session days.

      TC1 (UTL4)

      $10.01-$10.04 (Annual)
      $0.83-$0.84 (Averaged Month)
      $0.19+ (5-Day Week)

      TC2 (UTL5)

      $15.25-$15.31 (Annual)
      $1.27-$1.28 (Averaged Month)
      $0.29+ (5-Day Week)

      While it's only natural for most Longs to be rooting for TC2, it has a possible fatal flaw in it, the unclosed gap-up that was mentioned in message #21099.

      Uptrending trading channels are defined by their uptrend lines (floors) while downtrending trading channels are defined by their downtrend lines (soffits). If an uptrending channel's soffit is violated, it is not fatal to that channel's continued existence as it would be if its floor was violated. The converse is true for downtrending channels.

      Today, CXW violated the soffit of TC1 when its price exceeded the soffit's value of 33.67+. In so doing, TC1 may simply have been wanting to deepen or widen itself beyond its previous depth (floor to soffit) of 7.476+ points.

      While its i-d h today of 34.17 (a new 52-week high) was well below TC2's soffit value of 36.98+, tending to lead one to believe that TC2 is the course CXW has recently been embarked upon, there is that possible fatal flaw with TC2.

      A/o today, the value of UTL5 (TC2's floor) is 28.716. Since CXW's i-d l was 28.80, today, UTL5 (and therefor TC2) is still intact. If, however, CXW were to return to finish closing the gap which began @ 28.55, it is obvious that UTL5 would be violated in the course of said accomplishment and it would mean that TC2 was history.

      By comparison, TC1's floor's (UTL4's) value stands @ 26.195+ today, so if, within the next 11 or 12 weeks, CXW were to close that gap without underrunning it by much, UTL4 would not be violated and TC1 would remain operative.

      Should the more aggressive UTL5 be violated, it might merely be CXW's way of indicating a modest "revision" to its more aggressive upward course.

      Once again, only time and Mr. Market will tell us what CXW's intentions are.

    • For the week ending 12/05/03, CXW's 5-year forward-looking concensus CAGR in EPS has been raised again, this time a +11.11%, from 13.5% to 15.0%. It had been @ 13.5% for 7 weeks, starting with the week-ending 10/10/03.

      It has been more than four years (49 months) since CXW/PZN/CCA has had a CAGR this high. Not since the week-ending 11/05/99, when it was PZN and its CAGR (then 15.1%) had been declining, has it been this high.

      • 1 Reply to GenJackripper
      • That title should read, "increased again, again."

        Since the last time the General brought this subject up on this mb (on 12/08/03 in message #20973 -- to which this message 'replies'), there've been two increases in consensus CAGR in EPS.

        Here's the schedule of the "when" and the "how much" of the changes in CAGR, going back 24 weeks to the week ending 10/03/03, the last week-ending when the CAGR was @ 10.0%

        10/03/03: 10.0%
        10/10/03: 13.5%
        12/05/03: 15.0%
        03/05/04: 16.0%
        03/19/04: 18.5%

        An 85% increase in consensus CAGR in < 6 months' time ain't too shabby.

        Since the week-ending 2/20/04, there have been 6 research opinions reported here on CXW's Y!-F quote site whereas, when the General posted messages #20973 & #21069, there had been 7.

        A CAGR of 18.5% is the highest that CCA/PZN/CXW has had in almost 61 months' time. Not since the week-ending 2/26/99, when it was PZN and was heading for the toilet, did its 19.4% top that.

        In his attempt (in message #21069) to respond to oystergrouch's call for "Help!," the General said:

        << The consensus "7's" opinion as to EPS' CAGR has been on the rise. Is it unreasonable to expect that, as CXW shows continued improvement, the current +15.0% might, in a year's time, be raised to a +17.5% or possibly a +20.0% in a couple of years . . ? >>

        Obviously, the research community isn't paying any attention to the General's time-table.

        oystergrouch, if you want to recalc your 5-year forward-looking price target for CXW using a +18.5% CAGR instead of the +15.0% that was in effect at the time of #21069's posting, your investment club will probably award you the ears and the tail.

    • General, what was the closing stock price on 11/19/99? Do you still have that info?

      • 2 Replies to princessalouie
      • princess, after all these years we've spent together on this board, you should know better than to ask the obsessive/compulsive, anal retentive General whether he still has that info?

        tt99 (message #20860) was repeating what a slightly understating justmyview had said in #8173 (posted some 4 hours after the session's close that day).

        The Historical Prices archive shows a closing price on 11/19/99 of 8.76 with an adjusted close (for subsequent rs and dividends) of 80.42.

        The answer to your question is that PZN closed on 11/19/99 @ 9.8125.

        The General herewith presents the (raw data) closing price for PZN a/o the end-of-the-week as indicated. He is only showing those e-o-t-ws in which a change occurred in PZN's 5-year, forward-looking CAGR for EPS, not its industry group's changes in CAGR. "x"s have been employed in an attempt to maintain columnar alignmemt.

        The order of the data is as follows:

        1. Week Ending
        2. PZN's Closing Price
        3. PZN's CAGR/Industry's CAGR

        01/01/99: 20.5000 19.7/9.4
        02/05/99: 21.5000 19.4/9.3
        03/05/99: 20.3750 17.9/9.1
        05/14/99: 17.0000 16.9/9.0
        08/06/99: 12.8750 17.6/8.7
        10/29/99: 10.1875 15.1/8.5
        11/12/99: x9.3125 14.1/8.5
        11/26/99: x8.8750 11.6/8.5

      • Princess - go back to post # 8173, and other posts for the 19th. Gives a flavor of the mood of the day. BTW, looks like the price of PZN was about 9.75 on 11/19/99.
        Still a stretch from where we sit today (with 1:10 Reverse Split). Ahhhh, memories.

14.78-1.18(-7.39%)Sep 27 4:01 PMEDT