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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • toptalk99 toptalk99 Feb 3, 2006 4:09 PM Flag

    Closer to Earnings Q4...

    Drifting down on larger than average daily volumes, notwithstanding the general's gap-filling (almost hit today). Could it be possible that "knowledge of the numbers" is causing selling by some in-the-know?
    Maybe, maybe not. The next few days should tell.

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    • << Could it be possible that "knowledge of the numbers" is causing selling by some in-the-know? >>

      To paraphrase Howard H. Baker, Jr.� during the Watergate hearings, "What did those in-the-know know (if anything) and when did they know it?"

      What the available published evidence shows is this:

      1. CXW 'peaked' on 1/04/06 (@ $46.29), 4 days after the close of the FY05.

      Did "they" know on the 5th?

      2. The broader market averages (i.e. DJI�, NAZ, S&P) of essentially big-cap stocks, 'peaked' a week later on 1/11/06,� to wit:

      Dow Ind: 11070.10�
      Nasdaq: 2332.92
      S&P 500: 1294.90

      The mid-cap MID & small-cap RUT indexes have continued to either hold their own or increase, since their respective i-d hs on 1/11/06, which were:

      MID: 773.09
      RUT: 708.99

      Reckoned from their abovestated respective i-d hs on 1/11/06, these have been their respective % changes to their closing values on 2/03/06:

      DJI: -2.50%
      NAZ: -3.02%
      S&P: -2.38%
      MID: -0.07%
      RUT: +2.15%

      CXW's M-C is currently shown as $1.636 billion, which would barely qualify it as a mid-cap stock. By some sizing ranges, it might still fall within the small-cap range.

      Before the market's opening on 1/25/06, the company announced that earnings for 4Q05 & FY05 would be released on 2/09/06, so the last session before its published pr was 1/24/06, when CXW closed @ $43.26.

      Reckoned from 1/04/06, CXW's 'peak' day (when it established its current 52-week high), here are its % declines a/o its close on the days noted. The parenthetical number is CXW's average % decline PER TRADING DAY during the subject interval:

      1/11/06: -2.01% (-0.4020%)
      1/24/06: -6.55% (-0.5675%)
      2/03/06: -10.69% (-0.5175%)

      Obviously, CXW's rate of decline since it peaked, has accelerated since the major market indexes started south. Is that because:

      a) those in-the-know learned what they may have learned on the 12th, or is it because

      b) the market's weakness has exacerbated what those in-the-know may have learned back on the 5th, or is it because

      c) CXW just wants to tidy things up a bit and has picked this period as the time to do it, or

      d) none of the above.

      � While Howard Baker has achieved immortality for having asked the oft-quoted question, the author of the question was his counsel and former campaign manager, Fred Thompson, who's not only a professional actor, but subsequently represented TN in the U.S. Senate as well.

      � There is an inconsistency in some indexes between what was/is reported on the Y!-F Quote site (which the General records on a daily basis) and the figures that are archived in an index's Historical Prices page. This discrepancy mainly applies to i-d-hs & i-d ls, NOT to CLOSING values.

      The data for the DJI, as recorded by the General, indicates that it peaked @ 11047.76 on 1/11/06 (along with the NAZ & the S&P 500), whereas its Historical Prices archive shows it peaked on 1/12/06 @ 11070.10.

      � To compare apples with apples, the General has used the figures, for calc'ing purposes, as they're recorded in the respective Historical Prices archives.

32.05+0.39(+1.23%)Jul 29 4:02 PMEDT