It is clear that CCA's initial drop from ~40 to 20-25 was due to the REIT issue. A reasonable person could argue the amount of the drop is not justified but they can't argue the reason for the fall. However, I think another issue pulled PZN down from 25 to 16 and that is the (as yet unexplained) projected slowdown in the industry. I recall you mentioned this issue a while back, "blaming" Doc and co.
Well, I don't know who to "blame". As the industry leader, CCA certainly blessed those numbers but so did every other player in the industry along with a dozen Analysts. I see today that WHC has dropped from 30 to below 15 in the past year. If we considered CCA a growth Co. then WHC should have been considered a Super Growth Co. because they shed ownership of the facilities allowing them to concentrate on growth.
I don't know how fair it is to benchark against CRN, especially when we look at what's happenned to WHC. I've never followed CRN so I have no more idea why they barely dropped in the past year and I also don't know why they dropped from 24 to 8 in an earlier four month period this year (April to July). Did CRN lose 2/3's of it's value because CCA decided to become a REIT? More rational thinking by the market.
To me, it's clear the big issue here is the dramatic slowdown in the projected growth of the industry. Perhaps Doc & Co. saw this and that's why they went to a REIT model. I don't know.
Personally, I'd prefer to see (cleo, this is not directed at you) more (how about SOME) discussion of issues like the Industry Slowdown. I've really grown weary of some of the simply childish arguments such as Private Prison operators cause more people to go to jail. Yea, about as much as an increase in Morticians causes more people to die. Give me a break, please.