CCA revenue did not grow about $121 mil vs 122 mil in 2 previous qtrs. Even Subs earning to PZN is off slightly. CCA loss grew to $36 mil for the qtr vs $24 mil the last 2 qtrs .It is obvious that taxable income for PZN will not be any where close to $ 2.32 needed to justify the pay out of $.55 per qtr. A quick estimate of taxable income for first 3 qtrs is $1.40. If you estimate 4th qtr at $.40 you get $1.80 for the year. The required payout would be $1.80 * .95 =$ 1.71 So taxable earning for distribution is $.43 and we have received $.60 per qtr. Approximately $.51 of special has been distributed not $.15 previously thought. This leaves about $1.10 left for 4th qtr or about $130 mil. If occupancy is up slightly then why didn't the top line revenue grow a CCA Scary.
In a perverse way, your analysis would be a short-term positive for PZN. PZN's crisis of the day is liquidity concerns and if in fact they have been pre-paying the special in an accelerated fashion, the year-end liquidity concerns are not as bad as thought.
Obviously, if the state of the business is worse than expected that will be an over-riding negative in the future but until year-end the focus will be purely on liquidity.
Looking out a bit further, I maintian my assertion that occupancy is the key. If they can continue to improve occupancy (and get past the special dividend issue) they will do fine. If next year's dividend is only $1.70 but the outlook for the underlying business becames clearer and more positive, such a dividend rate would easily support a price in the mid to high teens.
If I had my wishes, I'd rather that PZN had employed MK instead of ML to help review alternatives. I doubt MK would charge them the $10 million that ML will probably get to tell them to just de-REIT. As usual, the simple answer is the best answer. C'mon doc, de-Reit this thing. If we are really making $1.70 pre tax, then that's $1.10 after tax which with a pe of 15 equates to a price of $16.5. Plus, we wouldn't have to go begging every quarter for more money.
Whoops, I'm on a negative rant again. Better sign off.