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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • Countach5000SQV1988 Countach5000SQV1988 Dec 27, 1999 11:37 AM Flag

    Its only the start of what is to come

    For For those who read my posts before I got out
    of the stock last week bloody but alive. I hope many
    here did the same. I predicted $4 - $5 by year-end
    when I got out based on the chart and volume. Starting
    next year it is going to be the real blood

    While many on this board try to figure out from the PZN
    book all kinds of things regarding dividends, RIET,
    DE-REIT, etc.. it was pretty clear, at least to me, that
    by breaking $7 with high volume, the street knew
    that the dividend would not be paid. That meant moving
    away from REIT. The chart was clearly saying that.
    This stock is a chartist dream, really a 101 textbook
    case. Meanwhile, many chose to ignore it and found
    comfort in the PZN assurances rather than the streetwise
    moves. The thing is they know things you don�t. Like I
    said before, it was obvious that at about $6 the
    street indicated that you WOULD SEE NO CASH! Just pure
    plain common sense.
    If only some of you would opened
    your eyes and look around or learn how to read a stock
    chart and what it is telling you...

    Now, for
    those who realize and are not foolishly lost in their
    own crumbling world here it is: (I got out so it is
    not my money anymore but yours)

    The DEREIT

    1. There is no longer a "guaranteed' dividend that
    will keep the price afloat.
    2. While good news, the
    new management is untried
    3. The co has still a
    lot of expenses in front of itself, including the
    coming myriads of suits.
    4. Forget the industry
    greatness. No pro investor in its right mind will now invest
    in PZN. Too much risks and uncertainty and
    5. The REIT guy will go out the door in doves and no
    one will replace them beyond short-term

    I hate to say it but PZN becoming a penny stock in
    2000 is very real.
    From now on, it is down with
    dead bounces. Don�t get fooled by some on this board
    like you have been so far. Trust the street when the
    chart says so. It will save your money. The SI is NO
    GUARANTEES OF SUCCESS. Success is measured only by the money
    the SI makes not how PZN shareholders will do in the

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    • I find your post rather like a meteorologist
      issuing a hurricane warning an hour after the eye of the
      storm just went through town. The majority of the
      damage has already been done here. Don't get me wrong -
      I'm not saying this stock is a screaming buy and if
      it happened to move up to the $6-7 range it might be
      a good time (for those who are short-term oriented)
      to lighten up but your prediction of PZN becoming a
      penny stock is a little too much for me. Sure the
      dividends are gone but I'm afraid there is more to valuing
      a company than whether it pays dividends. Short and
      simple, PZN has an occupancy problem brought on by
      speculative building. The ultimate direction of PZN's stock
      is very much related to its ability to correct this
      problem. The combined PZN/CCA is a business that has
      tremendous operating leverage (and financial leverage, too).
      However, leverage works both ways as we've seen recently.
      But if occupancy can move toward 97-100% then PZN's
      stock will perform quite well from these levels. The
      technicals you refer to clearly reflect concerns with this
      occupancy issue but tell us nothing about what will happen
      in the future.

      • 1 Reply to brendy45
      • I understand you don't beleive in PZN going much
        lower... Yet. I guess seing is believing for

        Regarding the warning after the hurricane, not quite so. I
        have been pretty active here as I paid attention for
        quite some times.
        I started looking at this in
        october to be exact and only mid-Nov did I realize that
        the situation was very serious.

        I also respect
        your analysis of the positive. The only problem, as it
        has been all along, who would wants to invest in this
        co given the destroyed reputation and the many
        upcoming challenges? This will take a long time to repair
        if nothing else comes along to screw ip

        Being a stock broker, would you take a chance recommend
        you client to buy former PZN as a good buy given its
        history and lose your client account?

    • is not bad...posted 3 times over last 3 months
      blackstone....and that stock would fall to 5 and then blackstone
      would offer 7...missed that part...guess tom b so
      pissed off at dropping 100mil that he could not be
      bought...may well buy again...stock has gone round trip for me
      bought old cca a4.06 rode to 45 and sold at 30....bought
      at 11ish in reccent crash...but per my posts sold at
      10 sold for a small loss and 2 div....interesting at
      under 5 which to us old ccaers closer to 4 as we own
      onl .875...bye bye docs but again to doc senior
      thanks for making me rich but you and your half baked
      son shoud have quit six months ago...does anyone know
      if doc has collared his stock...or did he go down
      with theship..h used tobe worth 90mil not even 10mil
      today afher taxes unless he collared...and poor tom he
      is having to work again

    • Thanks for letting us know how much you lost!!
      Listening to someone that took a beating in this stock is
      not something I find appealing. NOW IS THE TIME TO
      BUY!! All the bad news is out, people who were deluding
      themselves that a dividend was going to be paid are bailing.
      The preferred stock cannot be converted until the
      stock hits 6.5 which is a 37% premimun from these
      prices. Looking forward to next year. LIFE IS GREAT!! And
      the business is still good. We will see!!

      • 2 Replies to tennbanker24
      • I really expected that the SI would wind up with
        50% of the company rather than 39%. Also impressed
        that nothing is convertable until share price rises.

        Even though the REIT status is history I haven't seen
        anything to indicate NO dividends will be paid on the new
        entity. Based on the cashflow situation, continuing as a
        REIT was simply not an option. I bought this thing for
        income, as did most of us, but reality is

        Probably the best news is that current management is out.
        I never felt as much animosity as some of you did
        toward Doc, but after the scripted conference call, it
        was clear that he had lost credibility with The

        I am expecting a rocky period, since there will be
        people who bail now that they know that they know the
        dividend is history, but for the lng term, this is
        certainly a better play than the internet industry at 50X

        I would hate to see the price of the stock now if
        the deal I was expecting had come about.

      • I followed PZN for several months when it was
        trading around $10/share. I was looking for a REIT with a
        high dividend (to diversify). Instead of PZN I ended
        up buying CEI and doing okay with it (glad I did

        Saw the WSJ article this morning and now am ready to
        jump on board. Going to sit on the sidelines for a
        couple of days to see what happens re: selling by mutual
        funds, tax loss selling etc..

        If it goes below
        $4, I'll be forced to take a position in PZN for the
        long haul.

        Good luck to those who are sticking
        with the company. I think comments about the new
        management being untried are off base. PZN is re-merging
        with the company that spun them off (unless I'm
        mistaken). Should be the bottom here.

    • Hats off to you and your charting ability. For my
      own case, I am thoroughly discouraged with my picking
      this stock. Logic said buy a company earning good
      profits at a discount as opposed to paying mega multiples
      of sales for Yahoo or Amazon. I'm still sorting out
      lessons from this experience. One is diversify,
      diversify, diversify. I believe the other may be that there
      is no logic in stock performance. Any chart books
      you recommend?

      • 2 Replies to reverse_indicator
      • I am sorry that I won�t be able to post as
        frequently, although I will check from time to time. My game
        for the past year has been telecoms with CISCO, LU,
        ASND, FORE, CS and will remain that way in 2000. That
        is where the quiet fast moving action goes: The
        Internet backbone. The story is simple to understand. We
        all know where the future goes. I leave Internet
        plays for now as they are overdue for a correction
        early next year IMO. After that I�ll buy Internet brand
        PZN was my 1st and last REIT attempt. I will never
        buy REIT again as clearly the majority of investors
        don�t seem to like the idea. Rather buy good bonds if I
        want dividends.
        I did not know much about them and
        I owned CCA for the growth. Got fooled by much
        earlier well-written posts that made a good case for the
        merger benefits (mainly access to borrowing).
        Unfortunately, almost everyone ignored the ills of that deal but
        just a few that appeared emotional and not as well
        written. I voted NO on the merger but failed to sell
        because I felt these guys here knew better and appeared
        to have REIT experience. I figured REIT stock may
        behave differently. That was my biggest mistake I should
        have never put aside my own discomfort about the
        conflict of interests at PZN and the clear uneasiness of
        the street. I should have stuck to my homework but I
        got lazy on PZN and got busy on tech stocks. That
        until early last month when the chart started to get
        real ugly.

        PS: I will be a lead plaintiff on
        the guaranteed coming PZN suits given the
        opportunity. This stock, at best, is shot for years to come to
        the current level.

      • My charting abilities are not superior to anyone
        else. I just know how to use the basics. Nothing fancy
        except the use of the 6 months bollinger bands, also
        used by some pro traders to figure temporary
        overbuying or overselling leading to spikes up or down. I
        don�t pretend to know it all (I was a PZN shareholder
        after all..) but the PZN case was becoming pretty
        obvious since Nov and I have been amazed on the number of
        bullish posters while disaster was lurking in their
        faces. That got me interested. In that sense I found the
        PZN board to be quite unique. Since you asked, here
        are some advices I can share with you and I

        here just dwell the SEC forms to death and have
        ignored the street comments and actions (all negatives)
        supported by the chart. Over the past few months I got
        awaken by higher volume than avg with continuous sell
        off with small rebounds. A real warning flag in my
        book. A sharp sell off can be emotionally driver but a
        bleeding is a result of many cold calculated analysis made
        by programs and experience managers. And forget the
        tax sell-off argument crap. That never took a co from
        $10 to $4 in a month! A real value players never go
        that far.

        I got my wake up call early Nov. I do not think
        about how much I will lose by selling (which always put
        you in a non selling mood and muddies your thinking)
        but rather I think if I would you invest in the co
        with new money as a fresh investor. It is the hardest
        thing to do but knowing when to cut your losses is a
        sign of a seasoned experienced investor. One will be
        wrong sometime and knowing when as quickly as possible
        is the key. Unfortunately I was not quick but my
        decision was based on the charting, lack of news, and
        street comments and reaction. The SEC forms were
        irrelevant as I said earlier (the black hole theory). The
        PZN synthesis did not match and now the picture look
        even worst. So I went with the Street who has hints
        about DE-REIT while this board was hopelessly arguing
        about it.

        CONSISTENT DOWN CHART over 3 months with no clear corporate
        direction to lead the way to recovery. It is the kiss of
        death. I made that mistake in avg down last quarter
        because I thought they would keep the dividend. It is
        better to invest in a co showing a steady uptrend chart
        even if it looks overvalued as long as the co story is
        clear and positive with competent and straight

        A company
        value on paper like PZN means nothing at this point and
        valuation by the �paper� standard are no longer followed.
        The problems facing the co take center stage for its
        true valuation. They just had a distress dilution that
        changes the entire face of the co. If that does not scare
        you, I do not know what will. The chart shows no
        bottom yet. So you will keep on having steady downtrend
        with spikes up to an unknown level at this point.
        Could be $3 or $2 or $1 depends how bad the whole story
        will be and it can take months. But my experience is
        that a low established during a very high volume
        trading day like today is followed by further subsequent

        PZN was a fine
        example of how one guy at the top can use nepotism at his
        worst in view of all and create a deal that only a few
        can truly understand. Looking at PZN alone did not
        make sense without looking at OPCO since, as many like
        Flipper (which I respect for the way he can decipher an
        SEC form), have pointed out. You can�t know how PZN
        does unless you also look at the OPCO sheet. This is
        too complicated for the avg investor not to get
        burned during hard times. The CCA deal was much cleaner
        in the first place. That rule, I just learn at my
        expenses with PZN.

13.47+0.12(+0.90%)11:09 AMEDT