Well done, Oystergrouch, for combining an "on-topic" and an "off topic." My take on it is twofold. On one hand, there's so much we don't know about criminology and why people do what they do, but what we do know is that the older you are, the less likely you are to commit a crime. So, with the baby boomer demographic bulge entering into old age, crime should decrease, and thus demand. However, on the other hand, these baby boomers had CHILDREN, who are now of prime criminal age. And then they'll have children, and so on..
I think it'll all even out. Fluctuations will come due to economic factors, or just a coarse culture, or any number of things..
What is interesting to me is, when new prisons are needed, will government spend its own money to add capacity? Thanks to the privates, it doesn't have to, thus freeing up tax money for schools, roads, etc. This means there should always be a role for private corrections, as long as they have capital. Which is a big question mark - for all of them, not just CCA.
Thanks for those links. I am very interested in demographics and subscribe to a newsletter published by Harry Dent Jr. He is an economic historian, who specializes in studying the relationship between demographics and the economy. First heard him when he spoke at a Merrill Lynch seminar. At one point he said that the Dark Ages was the worst recession in history. That statement caught my attention. IMHO that kind of connection comes from the mind of an accomplished scholar. I was fascinated. His theory of demographics for the next 10 years is what I use as a basis for investing. I do not keep back copies, so I will post his website around July 10 for anyone interested. He is behind my purchase of CXW and CPV. According to his projections, there will be plenty of people at the right age for getting into trouble with the law. His book is availabe in bookstores. THE LONG BOOM AHEAD. The sectors that he believes will lead during the next 5 years are: financial services, healthcare, technology and real estate. He does not mention prisons per se, but he says a lot about services.