Yeah, I think that a down cycle for real estate is probably on its way. Yuppies are now making money by selling *unbuilt* houses for the market appreciation before construction even starts. That can't continue.
We all remember the last big real estate downturn in the early 1990s. Lenders went under, and the earnings picture for builders and title insurers was brutal for years. In the two-year period 1991-1992 ITIC lost money. The share price sagged to $2.00 in April 1992. THAT was a good entry point ... but buyers who paid $6 or $7 in 1990 had a long, grim ride.
Sure, the silver lining is that ITIC appears very well-run. They're very, very unlikely to go under in my opinion. Still, imagine the effect of 8 losing quarters on share price. That possibility worries me.