ITIC looking very weak to me. Risk of a price collapse is high on any bad news, IMO. With refi market looking lean, scary earnings news could come any quarter.
I've sold some and am preparing myself mentally to see some low prices on the rest of my holdings. If it sinks below $27, I'll buy my shares back.
Best of luck all.
I've been buying a little more in the 39.xx's during the last few days. No argument from me against someone who wants to lighten up the ITIC position, though. You either get it back cheaper later, or, if it never gets cheaper, you cry all the way to the bank in the years to come.
FWIW, I just ground thru the Natuzzi numbers for my first time since like 2003. I'm not sure that I see any discount. I'm worried by the continuing high capex in the absense of revenue improvement. I think free cash flow may be a good estimate of owner earnings -- perhaps 30 to 35 million euros per year, or 36 to 42 million USD. Multiply that by a P/E of 12, and you get roughly today's share price.
There are two more recent quarters filed by the way. The latest ended 1/12/05. Here are the Qs.
Qtr ended Jan 12 2005
Qtr ended Sep 22 2004
Astral and pjv: You two seem pretty sharp. Do you think that the recent weakness in the homebuilders and the new lows in FNM are an omen? It would worry me a little if I was invested in home finance, homebuilders or title companies. I am out for now, but I really like ITIC. If the price was right and the investment environment looked better to me I would be a buyer. Of all the title companies, I like ITIC the best.
Yeah, I think that a down cycle for real estate is probably on its way. Yuppies are now making money by selling *unbuilt* houses for the market appreciation before construction even starts. That can't continue.
We all remember the last big real estate downturn in the early 1990s. Lenders went under, and the earnings picture for builders and title insurers was brutal for years. In the two-year period 1991-1992 ITIC lost money. The share price sagged to $2.00 in April 1992. THAT was a good entry point ... but buyers who paid $6 or $7 in 1990 had a long, grim ride.
Sure, the silver lining is that ITIC appears very well-run. They're very, very unlikely to go under in my opinion. Still, imagine the effect of 8 losing quarters on share price. That possibility worries me.
Astral Tsar: Thanks for providing the link to Winn Dixie's more recent financial statemnets. I do like to read financial statements, but these are not much fun. Long and involved and put out by a bankrupt company. I like things simple and clear cut. My guess is that Winn Dixie was being less than candid to its shareholders with its financial statements prior to its bankruptcy.
I guess the big question right now for investors is, will the current shareholders be wiped out in the re-organization? I don't want to speculate on that. I don't think we have good enough information to make a sound judgement.
Finally, to me the more important factor than comparative sales between ABS and Winn Dixie is which one can make a profit. Profitability is the real trick. Anybody can generate sales in the grocery business if they are willing to sell at a loss.