Thank you for the props. Lucky? Yes very. But I have been waiting for this opportunity since 2004. I am not gonna sit back and miss out. I will not polute this forum with my weekly market commentary but with this exception. I sold 1/2 of my QLD position at 23.95, based purely support and resistance levels. I look for the $COMPQ to hit the 50 DMA. I will watch closely to sell the ramainder near this level if it fails to cross. Any cross above the 50 DMA I will add to the postion. If it doesn't make it to the 50 and crosses below the 20 DMA by 0.5% I will sell the ramiander regardless. One thing you can not count on and what I find messes even with professional traders is government intervention. One thing that is set in stone until it is not :) is that value always wins in the end.
Was this the bottom? I don't know but I think it is close and that is what matters IMO. I look for a retest at some point within the year. With the true bull to start within 3 years. IMO if you look at the stock market of the great depression we had our 1929 in $COMPQ in 2000. We are now in the 1937-38 bear where the market went down 52%. It took a world war to get us out of that one so lets hope history does not repeat itself in that regard. You make your money at the buy whether it be real estate or stocks or antique cars or gold (yes gold was a value at $250 an ounce several years ago).
A gift, a speculative stock pick with no guarantees. NNBR near $1 a share is a steal and worth a at least a small position. It is priced like it is going bankrupt, I don't believe it will. You could loose all of your position or have a 10 bagger. Worth the wager IMO. Research the stock first, they have some debt, but 16MIL market cap...give me a break.
Maybe 1/2 a prop. If he hasn't sold yet, then he hasn't nailed anything (as I have learned many times). The double bottom is going to be a costly drop. I would wager we'll be up 3-4% by then around here. No one is nimble enough to navigate this casino.
OK I think he should start easing in now. I can't stand it. QQQQ's are not quite back at the 52 week low. Maybe that means something. At least move the call options down so they kick in quickly on a spike.
Maybe the Fed will announce it's buying stocks Sunday afternoon and we open up at 8000 on the Dow:) Problem is I think everyone "knows" this decline is ridiculous and it still won't stop!
He will not go all in nor should he in my opinion. We'll double bottom on the final of the worst news (like Citibank collapses or some such news). There is plenty of time to gradually move in. 500 and 600 on the S&P is MANY % below here, we can't risk that. Each 100 pts. become more precious now. We've only got 7 of them left.
I would imagine the small losses we have had on down days lately (rather than the 1/2 - 1% gain one might expect) is due to the fact that Hussman is bringing down the call options to strikes still out of the money but somewhat closer than the old ones. The first bear rally is going to be a killer of a move and will probably happen on an announcement when markets are closed. Moving the options down and taking some "local" risk is the cost of insurance against such a move.
I will say this, Hussman better not miss the 1000-1500 point move that is coming (from whatever level it begins) or he has truly lost his touch compared to 2002.
This was from his WMC a week ago:
"In contrast, to match the worst historical troughs of market valuations, the S&P 500 would have to decline to between 10 and 11 times bottom-channel earnings, and between 5.5 and 6 times top-channel earnings. That would currently translate to somewhere between 500 and 550 on the S&P 500 Index. These levels are emphatically not forecasts – they represent extreme outcomes. Unfortunately, they also cannot be ruled out in the context of a deleveraging cycle plagued by utterly misguided policy responses."
Would love to see what he has to say this week but it's semi-annual report week.