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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • liamroland liamroland Aug 11, 2007 9:39 AM Flag

    How much pain can you take?

    This is a question that many of us are asking ourselves. I had lots phone calls and emails from friends thursday and friday who own this stock but really haven't done much research. All they see is that they have lost 20% to 50% of their money and it appears to keep going lower. I go over the story once again, they are comforted somewhat and will possibly hang in. Some think of buying more, some will dump.

    But it has made me think of the biggest opportunity that I think I missed in my lifetime....and there have been many. During the dot com crash there were many garbage companies that IPOed, had lots of cash but no viable business. However there was one that I knew of and was watching....Concur Technologies (CNQR)...If my memory is correct it went as low as 37.5 cents when things blew up in 2000. I had a friend who owned it and liked it a lot. He held from somewhat higher levels and was adding. I remember one of the things he said to me, they have a viable business, the founder is still there, has plenty of passion and still believes, that is a very good sign. I bought some on the way back up, likely in the 80 cent range and sold it somewhere 30 cents higher for what I thought was a tidy profit.

    Well folks, I check CNQR every once on awhile (I can't help it because my friend still has a sizable position and it often comes up in conversations....i might add they now have a beautiful place in Atherton and a gourgeous place in Santa Barbara...not soley because of CNQR though). Anyway that stock 7 years later has hit $30. It has fallen back a little since there but it has lots of analyst coverage. Think of it this way, from its peak this year it was 25% away from a 100 bagger in 7 years.

    So folks, it can happen. I'm not saying this is going to be a 100 bagger. We might go lower yet from here but eventually we will turn and these levels will look like a bargain. I don't want to have the pain of logging into Yahoo in 7 years to see that I've missed my second almost 100 bagger. Trust me, that pain would be far worse than the pain of this going down a couple cents as we work towards an eventual bottom before we turn up.

    Think about it.

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    • Great post! Guts and perserverance is what it takes. I believe 2007 is the year that America discovers Iplex for MMD. Moxley is quoted as saying that based on his clinical trial there is no reason to not "go all out." Having a national clinical trial for MMD with Iplex that's open to "anyone" with a physician would be "going all out." Because Iplex has such immediate effectiveness by "all" accounts (except for that one liar on the ALS board) the moment the trial is full, word-of-mouth will lead to offlabel sales to scores and maybe hundreds of MMD patients by the end of THIS year who can't sign up for the trial. If Q3 is not green, Q4 will almost certainly be, as MMD is a blockbuster indication for Iplex.
      ALS is starting to TAKE OFF in Italy. Q2 doubled Q1. Q3 should be substantially greater than Q2, and Q4 should hold amazing revenues, and an unexpectedly high patient count (possibly 2-300). Remember, there is no financial deterance for italian Als patients to use Iplex (gov't pays Insmed).
      So, why is the stock at 60.5 cents?
      1.We on the MB have absolutely no control over the decisions of those that can pull the strings of the SP. In fact our "good" DD is scoffed at by the likes of UBS and others, especially when we discover some amazing new development and the stock goes down.
      2.Allen doesn't trust WS. He flopped in his meeting with CEUT with a presentation that "sells itself." I believe that the .90 cent dilution which was preceded by heavy short-selling is what broke his trust in these institutions. Good news is he does believe in the company and us, and the future success of INSMED as proven by his open market purchase recently.
      3.Bashers have waged a psychological war on share holders with a lot of success.
      4.General market conditions have stunk, and quite a few biotechs have dropped underservedly.
      5.We broke support at .68

      What will cause the stock to go back up?
      1.Greed by institutions and hedge funds when they realize Iplex is a cash cow.
      2.If we announce a partner for biogenerics and legislation passes Congress. I'm not holding my breath, but it could happen very soon.
      3.Analyst coverage, if any of them have the kahunas to promote a .605 cent stock!
      4.More positive trial results (I almost hesitated to include this because of the last positive-results fiasco)
      God bless,

    • I thought about it and Insmed is very different for many different reasons from examples of 10+0 baggers.
      Insmed has 2 indications that they are shooting for at this time.That will make or break the company.Both are about 300M if both can survive,if both can get money to do a Phase3 trial.

      Insmed is not just getting started.They have flooded the street with shares just to stay alive NOW, because their first drug failed and then they lost the trial.They are not an example of a Biotech who has a molecule that 10 years later survives.They are a company that has stumbled badly in years past so your analogy is weak.Insmed has some good possibilities but my posts have been? Is this a "from the ashes" story" or is this a case of big money crushing a small company and taking the goods.There are far many more Biotech stories where shareholders got the short end of the stick.

    • liom, good post. That is what Cramer was saying.

      Buy some shares of stock and hope it goes down, then buy little more, goes down more, buy more, and so on.

      As long as you still like the company and company is still on the right path.

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