I believe that the sales projection that they have for 2015 of 875 Million only includes CF. Inhalation antibiotics approved to treat other disease should raise that number substantially. It is sort of nice, however, for an Insmed long to see who Technavio has listed as dominant players in the inhalation antibiotic market. Novartis, Gilead, Insmed, and Chiesi SA!
If you believe Technavio..... Insmed is going to be dominant.
Key vendors dominating this market space include Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corp., Gilead Sciences Inc., Insmed Inc., and Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A
Your basic premise is correct, but orphan indications can be additive. Add the market for NTM in the US and the CF/Pa in the US and Canada and that equals 85,000. There are other orphan indications such as bronchiectasis and other formulations that can be compounded with the liposome in the future to treat asthma, fungus, etc. I expect that INSM will do a master file on the safety and FEV-1 effect of the liposome, alone, soon after the current trials are completed.
But the agreement for a collaborative study between Transave and NIH to study NTM was July 31, 2009. This predates the Technavio marketing survey and was (probably included) in the marketing projections. Bogusclubman's supposition is his and fuds. This idea is further supported by the fact that Technavio included INSM in their forecast, which means they must have had some opinion on the success or failure of the NTM. I have always concluded (scientifically and medically) that it would be a success and effort to clarify the science since the merger confirms that notion. Lewis keeps on giving little tidbits with each presentation. Remember bcm saying all the presentations were the same since December. The November one is gone, but the December, January and February (revised presentation chart the bcm touted) all have a bit more info. And besides, if you listen to the Q&A some really interesting info comes out. The manner in which the question was phrased in Q1 of the last presentation points to that. Besides, anyone hear at the end that INSM has 44 employees? People listen but they do not hear.
Wedbush market size for both indications aprx 265M (top300M?) for CF and NTM. Many would think that Wedbush analyst Wade who has so far has been off by 50% in targets so far ( INSM ! $ 15!! ) is overstating Insmed possible markets. 90% of orphan drugs do