Knowing that we are on the verge of a decision on the future of ARIKACE FDA approval and all its potential and after attending a few previous annual meetings and hearing all I can about the naturally produced virtues of IPLEX [already FDA approved], my strong sentiment for the future of this company couldn't be stronger.
The price movement on HGSI in 2009 tells us we shouldn't be surprised at the current INSM share price.
With an investment in a development-stage biotech, the 'when' is almost as important as the 'if'. Investors following HGSI in March 2009 would have put all of their money into it had they known for sure that the Phase III results were going to be good. But nobody can see into the future, and the share price hit that low because the vast majority of investors were unwilling to be holding shares at a point when there was a risk of bad news arriving shortly.
Rehdvm tells us he has no doubt that the data from Insmed's dog study will be problem-free. But he seems to be under the impression that the dogs will be exposed to the same amount of drug as the rats, rather than an increased dosage to reflect the larger size of the animal.
Terry tells us he has no doubt that the data from Insmed's dog study will be problem-free. But he seems to be under the ludicrous impression that in so doing he can convince others that the good news is already priced in.
But the possibility of another delay due to problematic data cannot be ruled out - and the price is where it currently is because the vast majority of investors are far more intelligent that Rehdvm and Terry.
However, the HGSI shareholders who gambled, and then held their shares for nine months saw the value of their investments multiplied by about 70. I see a multiple of over 100 here for somebody buying now who is prepared to risk a further delay and a short-term loss on paper. But most investors are looking primarily for opportunities offering a slam-dunk increase in the near term.