If one simply takes $5 billion and divides that figure by $400 (the subsidized cost of a 28 day course of an inhaled antibiotic for CF) it indicates 12,500,000 doses would be sold. Divide that by the theoretical number of CF patients in Canada, the US and Europe (70,000?) and that figure equates to each CF patient taking 178 x 28 day doses PER YEAR! Arikace is a strong buy for many reasons that have been highlighted by WL in his presentations since October of last year and the potential for a liposome master file that could facilitate the use of important drugs, vaccines and genetic therapy molecules in the pulmonary/respiratory system in the next 20 years. It is not a strong buy because of the rediculous math and pumping of the few idiots on this MB. The exaggeration in the thread below demonstrates the lunacy that pervades this MB.
VRTX went up 59%, which was the degree of boost to the market cap. But somehow 59% equates to almost a 21 times (or 2100%) re-evaluation for INSM. Look at VRTX pipeline (all major clinical indications) and their collaborative base with biopharma. VRTX is INSM 10-15 years from now if they get the liposome master file and a host of collaborators. Except on this MB by the pumpers calculate 59% for VRTX is 2100% for INSM in the same time frame. Idiot posts.
Nobody's saying Insmed is going to be valued at 5 billion tomorrow, but this is the value added to VRTX on one day with a potential treatment for CF that had good phase 2 results and treats about 1/2 of CF pop. This was on market pulse:
$INSM mkt cap only $240m $VRTX added $6-7 bln mkt cap alone today
What was added to VRTX market cap was 59% which translates to , if you say so 6-7 bil ( I didn't check so I don't know). If we had a dramatic move equal to VRTX our market cap increases by $141,600. Bringing the share price to $11.85. It would take that kind of move just to get us within reach of your previous prediction of $12.50's the bottom. So please, chill on the hyperbole.
I owned a few shares of Amgen when they first began their efforts. People laughed. Do you know their share price after all the splits? Anything is possible with bio especially with a small float. Providing the pipeline has value.